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Arbeitsmarkt Pflege: Bestimmung der künftigen Altenpflegekräfte unter Berücksichtigung der Berufsverweildauer

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  • Hackmann, Tobias

Abstract

Die Zahl der professionell zu versorgenden Pflegefälle wird sich bis zum Jahr 2050 voraussichtlich um etwa 270 Prozent erhöhen. Diesem Anstieg der Pflegebedürftigen steht ein zu erwartender Rückgang der Erwerbspersonen um etwa 40 Prozent gegenüber. Unter Zugrundelegung eines Zeitreihenmodells werden die für die Zahl der Altenpflegekräfte relevanten Angebots-und Nachfragefaktoren ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse des Zeitreihenansatzes machen jedoch deutlich, dass sich die Anzahl der professionellen Altenpflegekräfte - unter Berücksichtigung aller zu erwartenden Veränderungen - nur um etwa 30 Prozent bis zum Jahr 2050 steigern lässt. Um Versorgungsengpässe im Pflegebereich dennoch abzuwenden, gilt es, mit Hilfe gezielter Maßnahmen die Zahl der professionellen Altenpflegekräfte weiter zu erhöhen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt der vorliegende Beitrag auf, in welchem Ausmaß sich die Zahl der Altenpflegekräfte durch eine Steigerung der durchschnittlichen Berufsverweildauer erhöhen lässt.

Suggested Citation

  • Hackmann, Tobias, 2009. "Arbeitsmarkt Pflege: Bestimmung der künftigen Altenpflegekräfte unter Berücksichtigung der Berufsverweildauer," FZG Discussion Papers 40, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven Simoens & Mike Villeneuve & Jeremy Hurst, 2005. "Tackling Nurse Shortages in OECD Countries," OECD Health Working Papers 19, OECD Publishing.
    2. Hackmann, Tobias & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Pflege im Spannungsfeld von Angebot und Nachfrage," FZG Discussion Papers 33, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
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    1. Merda, Meiko & Braeseke, Grit & Dreher, Birger & Bauer, Thomas K. & Mennicken, Roman & Otten, Sebastian & Scheuer, Markus & Stroka, Magdalena A. & Talmann, Anna E. & Braun, Helmut, 2012. "Chancen zur Gewinnung von Fachkräften in der Pflegewirtschaft: Kurzfassung. Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 72586, March.
    2. Augurzky, Boris & Heger, Dörte, 2016. "Faktenbuch Pflege 2016: Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des Arbeitgeberverbandes Pflege," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 236533, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Formelle Pflege; Arbeitsmarkt Pflege; Berufsverweildauer; Demografie;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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