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Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns

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  • Eichfelder, Sebastian
  • Lau, Mona

Abstract

We argue that the tax capitalization effect is a function of the attention of market participants. Market reactions can therefore be driven not only by the announcement dates of tax events but also by factors influencing the dissemination of tax information, such as deadlines and media reports. Analyzing the introduction date of the earlier-announced German capital gains tax reform of 2009 by triple-difference estimation, we find evidence of a delayed market reaction long after the announcement date. Within the last two (five) trading days before the deadline, we observe a sharp increase in abnormal trading volumes of 151.7% (104.0%). The aggregate abnormal return of the German capital market in the last five trading days in 2008 was 10.6%. Furthermore, we find a significant and positive correlation between trading volumes and measures for awareness of the upcoming tax reform (Google searches and media reports).

Suggested Citation

  • Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," Discussion Papers 2015/33, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201533
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital gains tax; asset pricing; tax awareness; tax arbitrageM; turn-of-the-year effect; market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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