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A spectral perspective on excess volatility

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  • Livan, Giacomo
  • Alfarano, Simone
  • Milakovic, Mishael
  • Scalas, Enrico

Abstract

We perform a careful spectral analysis of the correlation structures observed in real and financial returns for a large pool of long-lived US corporations, and find that financial returns are characterized by strong collective fluctuations that are absent from real returns. Once the excessive comomvement is subtracted from individual financial time series, the behavior of real and financial returns is virtually identical in both the cross-sectional and time series domains, thereby demonstrating the inherently collective nature of excessive fluctuations. Put differently, if excess volatility is to be reduced then one would do well to inhibit excess comovement first. At any rate, the excessive behavior in volatility and comovement should no longer be studied in isolation of each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Livan, Giacomo & Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael & Scalas, Enrico, 2014. "A spectral perspective on excess volatility," FinMaP-Working Papers 12, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew J. Patton & Michela Verardo, 2012. "Does Beta Move with News? Firm-Specific Information Flows and Learning about Profitability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2789-2839.
    2. Kallberg, Jarl & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Time-series and cross-sectional excess comovement in stock indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 481-502, June.
    3. Mundt, Philipp & Förster, Niels & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2014. "The real versus the financial economy: A global tale of stability versus volatility," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-26.
    4. Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael & Irle, Albrecht & Kauschke, Jonas, 2012. "A statistical equilibrium model of competitive firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-149.
    5. G. Livan & S. Alfarano & E. Scalas, 2011. "The fine structure of spectral properties for random correlation matrices: an application to financial markets," Papers 1102.4076, arXiv.org.
    6. Toda, Alexis Akira, 2012. "The double power law in income distribution: Explanations and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 364-381.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chakrabarti, Arnab & Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2020. "Fractional Differencing: (In)stability of Spectral Structure and Risk Measures of Financial Networks," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    2. Philipp Mundt & Simone Alfarano & Mishael Milaković, 2022. "Survival and the Ergodicity of Corporate Profitability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3726-3734, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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