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Zurecht umstritten: Eine industriepolitische Analyse der Intel-Magdeburg Subvention anhand des BESTInvest-Leitfadens

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  • Gerresheim, Nils
  • Krahé, Max

Abstract

Der US-amerikanische Halbleiterkonzern Intel plant, zwei hochmoderne Chipfabriken in der Nähe von Magdeburg zu bauen. Mit knapp 10 Milliarden Euro wurde diesem Projekt die größte industriepolitische Förderung versprochen, die die Bundesregierung je einem einzelnen Unternehmen zugesagt hat. Ist diese Subvention gut verwendetes Geld? Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage haben wir einen Leitfaden zur Bewertung von staatlichen Investitionen (BESTInvest) entwickelt. Dieses Papier umreißt den Leitfaden und wendet ihn auf Intel-Magdeburg an. Unsere Schlussfolgerung ist, dass die Subvention zurecht umstritten ist. Lernkurven-, Cluster und Innovationseffekte schaffen zwar Pfadabhängigkeiten in der Halbleiterproduktion, doch deren Ausmaß ist mit großen Unsicherheiten verbunden und die Effekte einer einzelnen Subvention sind im wahrscheinlichsten Fall moderat. Dementsprechend bleibt es unklar, ob die Unterstützung ausreichen würde, um Intel-Magdeburg langfristig wettbewerbsfähig zu machen. Zudem werden verhältnismäßig wenige Arbeitsplätze in einem Markt geschaffen, in dem aktuell ein Fachkräftemangel herrscht. Dies stellt sowohl die gesamt- als auch die regionalwirtschaftlichen Effekte des Projektes in Frage. Neben den wirtschaftlichen Faktoren sind auch Klima- und Souveränitätseffekte relevant, welche positiv, aber moderat sind. Die Gesamtbewertung hängt an der Gewichtung einzelner Aspekte, sowie an der Bereitschaft, gegebenenfalls mit weiteren Maßnahmen die Clusterbildung und die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Halbleiterbranche in Deutschland und Magdeburg zu fördern.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerresheim, Nils & Krahé, Max, 2024. "Zurecht umstritten: Eine industriepolitische Analyse der Intel-Magdeburg Subvention anhand des BESTInvest-Leitfadens," Papers 303198, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:303198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Intel-Magdeburg; Halbleiter; Industriepolitik;
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