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Dekarbonisierung bis zum Jahr 2050? Klimapolitische Maßnahmen und Energieprognosen für Deutschland, Österreich und die Schweiz

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  • Frondel, Manuel
  • Thomas, Tobias

Abstract

Angesichts der wachsenden klimapolitischen Herausforderungen streben mittlerweile viele Länder Europas bis zum Jahr 2050 eine Dekarbonisierung an, das heißt den Ausstieg aus der Nutzung fossiler Energieträger. Vor diesem Hintergrund präsentiert dieser Beitrag Prognosen des Energiebedarfs und der Energiemixe für Deutschland, Österreich und die Schweiz für das Jahr 2030 sowie einen Ausblick auf das Jahr 2050. Der Vergleich der bisherigen Energiepolitiken dieser Länder offenbart gravierende Unterschiede: Während Deutschland bislang vorwiegend auf die massive Subventionierung alternativer Stromerzeugungstechnologien gesetzt hat, war der bisherige Ansatz Österreichs eher, Energieverbrauch und Treibhausgasausstoß mit ordnungsrechtlichen Maßnahmen, insbesondere Ge- und Verboten, aber auch Subventionen, senken zu wollen. Im Gegensatz dazu setzt die Schweiz bereits seit dem Jahr 2008 auf das marktwirtschaftliche Instrument der CO2-Abgabe. Die hier präsentierten Prognosen des Energiebedarfs der drei Länder deuten darauf hin, dass vor allem Deutschland und Österreich mit einer Fortführung der bisherigen Politik das langfristige Ziel einer weitgehenden Dekarbonisierung nicht erreichen dürften, während es in der Schweiz bereits zu einem spürbaren Rückgang des Primärenergieverbrauchs gekommen ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die jüngst in Deutschland beschlossene CO2-Bepreisung der Emissionen in den Bereichen Verkehr und Wärme besondere Bedeutung. Auch die neue österreichische Bundesregierung möchte in diesen Sektoren eine CO2-Bepreisung einsetzen. Es bleibt allerdings abzuwarten, wie konsequent das marktwirtschaftliche Instrument der CO2-Bepreisung tatsächlich verfolgt wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Frondel, Manuel & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Dekarbonisierung bis zum Jahr 2050? Klimapolitische Maßnahmen und Energieprognosen für Deutschland, Österreich und die Schweiz," DICE Ordnungspolitische Perspektiven 105, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diceop:105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frondel, Manuel & Kussel, Gerhard & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2019. "Local cost for global benefit: The case of wind turbines," Ruhr Economic Papers 791, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, revised 2019.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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