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Core inflation in the Euro area: Evidence from the structural VAR approach

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  • Hahn, Elke

Abstract

Against the difficult background of analysing aggregated data in this paper core inflation in the euro area is estimated by means of the structural vector autoregressive approach. We demonstrate that the HICP sometimes seems to be a misleading indicator for monetary policy in the euro area. We furthermore compare our core inflation measure to the wide-spread ex food and energy measure, often referred to by the ECB. In addition we provide evidence that our measure is a coincident indicator of HICP inflation. Assessing the robustness of our core inflation measure we carefully conclude that it seems to be quite reliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hahn, Elke, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area: Evidence from the structural VAR approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200109
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christine Gartner & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries," Working Papers 33, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
    3. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 2001. "Identifying domestic and imported core inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1819-1831.
    4. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:33:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro‐zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November.
    7. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    8. Vega, Juan Luis & Wynne, Mark A., 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 53, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wojciech W Charemza & Svetlana Makarova, 2006. "Ex ante Dynamics of Real Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001–2003," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 458-479, September.
    2. Bianca Steliana Pîra (Beşa), 2014. "Preparing The Euro Changeover – Romania'S Case," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(2), pages 392-409, December.
    3. Sigal Ribon, 2009. "Core Inflation Indices for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2009.08, Bank of Israel.
    4. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Makarova, Svetlana, 2005. "Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy : theory and evidence for Poland and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_020 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Core Inflation; Structural VAR Approach; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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