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A Bayesian stochastic discount factor for the cross-section of individual equity options

Author

Listed:
  • Käfer, Niclas
  • Mörke, Mathis
  • Weigert, Florian
  • Wiest, Tobias

Abstract

We utilize Bayesian model averaging to estimate a stochastic discount factor (SDF) for single-stock options. A Bayesian model averaging SDF outperforms reduced-form benchmark models in-sample and out-of-sample in pricing option return anomalies and portfolios. We document that the SDF is dense in characteristics with the impliedrealized volatility spread, option return momentum, and jump risk emerging as the most likely included factors. Noteworthy, we find that (i) our results remain largely robust after controlling for transaction costs and (ii) characteristics linked to behavioral biases gain in importance for options with high retail trading volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Käfer, Niclas & Mörke, Mathis & Weigert, Florian & Wiest, Tobias, 2025. "A Bayesian stochastic discount factor for the cross-section of individual equity options," CFR Working Papers 25-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:311832
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity options; Option factor models; Asset pricing; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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