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Equity Volatility Term Structures and the Cross Section of Option Returns

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  • Vasquez, Aurelio

Abstract

The slope of the implied volatility term structure is positively related to future option returns. I rank firms based on the slope of the volatility term structure and analyze the returns for straddle portfolios. Straddle portfolios with high slopes of the volatility term structure outperform straddle portfolios with low slopes by an economically and statistically significant amount. The results are robust to different empirical setups and are not explained by traditional factors, higher-order option factors, or jump risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasquez, Aurelio, 2017. "Equity Volatility Term Structures and the Cross Section of Option Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2727-2754, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:52:y:2017:i:06:p:2727-2754_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Amit Goyal & Alessio Saretto, 2022. "Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No," Working Papers 2214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Kevin Aretz & Ming-Tsung Lin & Ser-Huang Poon, 2023. "Moneyness, Underlying Asset Volatility, and the Cross-Section of Option Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 289-323.
    3. Borochin, Paul & Wu, Zekun & Zhao, Yanhui, 2021. "The effect of option-implied skewness on delta- and vega-hedged option returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Jianhui Li & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2019. "How do US options traders “smirk” on China? Evidence from FXI options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1450-1470, November.
    5. Pakorn Aschakulporn & Jin E. Zhang, 2022. "Bakshi, Kapadia, and Madan (2003) risk‐neutral moment estimators: An affine jump‐diffusion approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 365-388, March.
    6. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2019. "Belief heterogeneity in the option markets and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Biao Guo & Hai Lin, 2020. "Volatility and jump risk in option returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1767-1792, November.
    8. Peter K. Friz & Paul Gassiat & Paolo Pigato, 2022. "Short-dated smile under rough volatility: asymptotics and numerics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 463-480, March.
    9. Connor J.A. Stuart & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang & Xinfeng Ruan, 2021. "Implied volatility smirk in the Australian dollar market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4573-4599, September.
    10. Wee Ling Tan & Stephen Roberts & Stefan Zohren, 2024. "Deep Learning for Options Trading: An End-To-End Approach," Papers 2407.21791, arXiv.org.
    11. Ruan, Xinfeng, 2020. "Volatility-of-volatility and the cross-section of option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. Fullwood, Jonathan & James, Jessica & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Volatility and the cross-section of returns on FX options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1262-1284.
    13. Chen, Bei & Gan, Quan & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2023. "Anticipating jumps: Decomposition of straddle price," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Bjørn Eraker & Aoxiang Yang, 2022. "The Price of Higher Order Catastrophe Insurance: The Case of VIX Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3289-3337, December.
    15. Chen, Xi & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Jump and volatility risk in the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    17. Büchner, Matthias & Kelly, Bryan, 2022. "A factor model for option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1140-1161.
    18. Matthias Buechner & Bryan T. Kelly, 2021. "A Factor Model For Option Returns," NBER Working Papers 29369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    20. Bali, Turan G. & Beckmeyer, Heiner & Moerke, Mathis & Weigert, Florian, 2021. "Option return predictability with machine learning and big data," CFR Working Papers 21-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    21. Jia, Xiaolan & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2023. "Carr and Wu’s (2020) framework in the oil ETF option market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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