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Do higher-moment equity risks explain hedge fund returns?

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  • Agarwal, Vikas
  • Bakshi, Gurdip
  • Huij, Joop

Abstract

Hedge funds are fundamentally exposed to equity volatility, skewness, and kurtosis risks based on the systematic pattern and significant spread in alphas from the existing models that do not control for the higher-moment risks. The spread and pattern in alphas do not disappear with bootstrap simulation, Bayesian analysis to account for potential estimation error, adjustment for backfilling bias, and the inclusion of additional systematic factors. Significant cross-sectional variation in higher-moment exposures is observed across fund styles with equity-oriented styles displaying more extreme exposures. Investable higher-moment factors explain the time series behavior of returns of a large number of Managed Futures, Event Driven, and Long/Short Equity hedge funds. Average exposure sensitivities for higher-moment factors are statistically significant in an estimation that accounts for style fixed effects and fund random effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwal, Vikas & Bakshi, Gurdip & Huij, Joop, 2009. "Do higher-moment equity risks explain hedge fund returns?," CFR Working Papers 10-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1007
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/41366/1/637040821.pdf
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    1. Mark Britten‐Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Subbiah, Mohan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2016. "Hedge fund allocation: Evaluating parametric and nonparametric forecasts using alternative portfolio construction techniques," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 189-201.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    3. Vikas Agarwal & Stefan Ruenzi & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Unobserved Performance of Hedge Funds," Working Papers on Finance 1825, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
    5. Yang, Huan & Cai, Jun & Huang, Lin & Marcus, Alan J., 2021. "Bank stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 203-229.
    6. Elyasiani, Elyas & Gambarelli, Luca & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2020. "Moment risk premia and the cross-section of stock returns in the European stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2016. "Moment Risk Premia and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Department of Economics 0103, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2012. "Systematic risk and the cross section of hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 114-131.
    9. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    10. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
    11. Karagiorgis, Ariston & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "The Skewness-Kurtosis plane for non-Gaussian systems: The case of hedge fund returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Jozef Barunik & Josef Kurka, 2021. "Risks of heterogeneously persistent higher moments," Papers 2104.04264, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    13. Charles Chevalier & Serge Darolles, 2019. "Trends everywhere? The case of hedge fund styles," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(6), pages 442-468, October.
    14. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, Tracy Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2017. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," CFR Working Papers 15-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2017.
    15. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    16. Paul Karehnke & Frans de Roon, 2020. "Spanning Tests for Assets with Option-Like Payoffs: The Case of Hedge Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5969-5989, December.
    17. Andrea J. Heuson & Mark C. Hutchinson & Alok Kumar, 2020. "Predicting hedge fund performance when fund returns are skewed," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 877-896, December.
    18. Lambert, Marie & Fays, Boris & Hübner, Georges, 2020. "Factoring characteristics into returns: A clinical study on the SMB and HML portfolio construction methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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