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A severity function approach to scenario selection

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  • Mokinski, Frieder

Abstract

The severity function approach (abbreviated SFA) is a method of selecting adverse scenarios from a multivariate density. It requires the scenario user (e.g. an agency that runs banking sector stress tests) to specify a "severity function", which maps candidate scenarios into a scalar severity metric. The higher the value of this metric, the more harmful a scenario is. In selecting a scenario the SFA proceeds as follows: First, it isolates a set of equally severe scenario candidates. This set is determined by the condition that more severe scenarios only occur with some user-specified probability. Second, from this set it selects the candidate with the highest probability density, i.e. the most plausible scenario. The approach hence operationalizes the mantra that "scenarios should be severe yet plausible".

Suggested Citation

  • Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:342017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress Testing; Conditional Forecasting; Density Forecasting; Time series; Bayesian VAR; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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