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Structural change and the climate risk premium during the green transition

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  • Zhou, Sophie Lian
  • van der Ploeg, Frederick

Abstract

We study climate change in a model with a carbon-intensive and a green sector, each subject to stochastic productivity shocks, and show how the underlying economic structure affects the risk-adjusted discount rate and the climate risk premium in the social cost of carbon (SCC). Consumption growth, aggregate consumption volatility, and the climate beta depend on the elasticity of substitution between the two sectors and the relative size of the sectors, and vary during the green transition. The time path of the climate risk premium is hump-shaped, with the climate beta playing a dominant role in its magnitude. For strong substitutability between the two sectors and low correlation between the sectoral shocks, decarbonization can temporarily reduce aggregate consumption risk, as the climate beta becomes negative in the mid phase of the transition. The risk-adjusted discount rate first falls then rises during the green transition, leading to a SCC to GDP ratio that rises then falls as the green sector grows. We illustrate our analytical results numerically.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Sophie Lian & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2024. "Structural change and the climate risk premium during the green transition," Discussion Papers 17/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:299239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social cost of carbon; climate beta; carbon risk premium; two-sector model; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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