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The pricing of correlated default risk: evidence from the credit derivatives market

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  • Zhu, Haibin
  • Tarashev, Nikola A.

Abstract

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall level of index spreads validate our PD measures. At the same time, the physical asset return correlations are too low to account for the spreads of index tranches and, thus, point to a large correlation risk premium. This premium, which covaries negatively with current realized correlations and positively with future realized correlations, sheds light on market perceptions of and attitude towards correlation risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Haibin & Tarashev, Nikola A., 2008. "The pricing of correlated default risk: evidence from the credit derivatives market," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kreis, Yvonne & Leisen, Dietmar P.J., 2018. "Systemic risk in a structural model of bank default linkages," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-236.
    2. Jan Mutl & Leopold Sögner, 2019. "Parameter estimation and inference with spatial lags and cointegration," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 597-635, July.
    3. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    4. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    5. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    6. Sangwon Suh & Inwon Jang & Misun Ahn, 2013. "A Simple Method For Measuring Systemic Risk Using Credit Default Swap Market Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 75-100, December.
    7. Chamizo, Álvaro & Fonollosa, Alexandre & Novales, Alfonso, 2019. "Forward-looking asset correlations in the estimation of economic capital," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 264-288.
    8. Collins, Sean & Gallagher, Emily, 2016. "Assessing the credit risk of money market funds during the eurozone crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 150-165.
    9. Collins, Sean & Gallagher, Emily, 2014. "Assessing Credit Risk in Money Market Fund Portfolios," MPRA Paper 56256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tarashev, Nikola, 2010. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: Why parameter uncertainty matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2065-2076, September.
    11. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    12. Timmermann, Allan & Schmidt, Lawrence & , & Wermers, Russ, 2017. "Transparency, Investor Information Acquisition, and Money Market Fund Risk Rebalancing during the 2011-12 Eurozone Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 11895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio credit risk; Correlation risk premium; CDS index; Tranche spread; Copula;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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