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Non-linear Effects of Fiscal Policy in Germany: A Markov-Switching Approach

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  • Höppner, Florian
  • Wesche, Katrin

Abstract

Keynesian theory suggests that a reduction in government expenditure has a negative effect on private demand and therefore on output. Contrary, neoclassical theory argues that reduced public expenditure makes room for an expansion of the private sector and thus has a stimulating effect on the economy. Additionally, expectations of a lower tax burden in the future should stimulate consumption. The recent literature discusses that both theories might be right at different times. Especially, during times of fiscal contractions from high levels of debt the economy might react in a neoclassical way. In this paper, we test for non-linear effects of fiscal policy in a Markov-switching approach. We find two different regimes, with a neoclassical regime prevailing around 1972-74, 1979-82 and 1991-93. Furthermore, using time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) for the Markov process, we test if the neoclassical reaction of private consumption to fiscal variables depends on some!

Suggested Citation

  • Höppner, Florian & Wesche, Katrin, 2000. "Non-linear Effects of Fiscal Policy in Germany: A Markov-Switching Approach," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 9/2000, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:92000
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    Cited by:

    1. U. Michael Bergman & Michael Hutchison, 2010. "Expansionary Fiscal Contractions: Re-evaluating the Danish Case," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 71-93.
    2. Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Burger, Anton, 2006. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 95, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2007. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp095, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    7. Christophe Kamps, 2006. "Are the effects of fiscal policy really nonlinear? A note," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 113-125, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; private consumption; Markov-switching; time-varying transition probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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