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Analysis of the balance between U.S. monetary and fiscal policy using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control

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  • Crowley, Patrick M.
  • Hudgins, David

Abstract

This paper uses wavelet-based optimal control to simulate fiscal and monetary strategies under different levels of policy restrictions. The model applies the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) to United States quarterly GDP data, and then uses the decomposed variables to build a large 80 dimensional state-space linear-quadratic tracking model. Using a political targeting design for the frequency range weights, we simulate jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy where: (1) both fiscal and monetary policy are dually emphasized, (2) fiscal policy is unrestricted while monetary policy is restricted to achieving a steady increase in the market interest rate, and (3) only monetary policy is relatively active, while fiscal spending is restricted to achieving a target growth rate. The results show that fiscal policy must be more aggressive when the monetary authorities are not accommodating the fiscal expansion, and that the dual-emphasis policy leads a series of interest rate increases that are balanced between a steadily increasing target and a low, fixed rate. This research is the first to construct integrated fiscal and monetary policies in an applied wavelet-based optimal control setting using U.S. data.

Suggested Citation

  • Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2016. "Analysis of the balance between U.S. monetary and fiscal policy using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2016, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2016_021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Kendrick & George Shoukry, 2014. "Quarterly Fiscal Policy Experiments with a Multiplier-Accelerator Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 269-293, October.
    2. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
    3. Patrick M. Crowley & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2014. "The Great Moderation Under the Microscope: Decomposition of Macroeconomic Cycles in US and UK Aggregate Demand," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Marco Gallegati & Willi Semmler (ed.), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, edition 127, pages 47-71, Springer.
    4. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    5. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    6. David Hudgins & Joon Na, 2016. "Entering H $$^{\infty }$$ ∞ -Optimal Control Robustness into a Macroeconomic LQ-Tracking Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 121-155, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dalia Mansour-Ibrahim, 2023. "Are the Eurozone Financial and Business Cycles Convergent Across Time and Frequency?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 389-427, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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