IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp1995_011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The interest rate sensitivity of output in Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Takala, Kari

Abstract

Monetary policy affects the economy through the exchange rate and interest rates.It is assumed that the relationship between interest rates and GDP is negative and that interest rates affect GDP more powerfully than the other way around.These conclusions are confirmed here.Estimated elasticities--which compare annual percentage changes in GDP to annual percentage changes in the interest rate-produce interest rate elasticity close to unity.It should also be stressed that a nominal interest rate effect is found instead of a real rate effect both in GDP and its components. For private consumption, the interest rate measures the relative future price of consumption, which includes substitution and income effects.According to estimations the interest rate elasticity for non-durable consumption is around -0.4, which indicates the dominance of the substitution effect. For durable purchases, the interest rate elasticity is much higher and is also volatile.Rough estimate showed that the interest rate elasticity for durables could be around -4.0. For private investment, the interest rate measures the opportunity cost of investment and a cost factor in debt financing.Financial deregulation has obscured the importance of interest rates in determining manufacturing investment.It seems that during the boom years domestic lending rates lost their significance in affecting investment plans.A rough estimate for a long-term interest rate elasticity of manufacturing investment could be -2.On the other hand financial deregulation has clearly increased the power of interest rates in determining the level of housing investment. During 1980s the real lending rate became a significant determinant of housing investment, and we cannot reject the hypothesis of unitary elasticity, ie. elasticity of -1.

Suggested Citation

  • Takala, Kari, 1995. "The interest rate sensitivity of output in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/1995, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1995_011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211724/1/bof-rdp1995-011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-108, January.
    2. Viren, Matti, 1987. "Inflation and Interest Rates: Some Time Series Evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-66.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1990_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    5. Chadha, Bankim & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. "Inflation, nominal interest rates and the variability of output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 547-573, October.
    6. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    7. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    8. repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:3:p:443-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert E. Hall, 1977. "Investment, Interest Rates, and the Effects of Stabilization Policies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 61-122.
    10. Dufwenberg, Martin & Koskenkylä, Heikki & Södersten, Jan, 1994. "Manufacturing investment and taxation in the Nordic countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1994, Bank of Finland.
    11. Kari Takala & Matti Tuomala, 1990. "Housing investment in Finland," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 41-53, Spring.
    12. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    13. Beverly Hirtle & Jeanette Kelleher, 1990. "Financial market evolution and the interest sensitivity of output," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sum), pages 56-70.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1994_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
    16. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G., 1995. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: Some sectoral estimates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1611-1626, December.
    19. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Takala, Kari, 1995. "The interest rate sensitivity of output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 11/1995, Bank of Finland.
    3. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1997. "Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1087-1129, July.
    5. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 620-640.
    7. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo.
    8. Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1997. "Asymétries financières et transmission de la politique monétaire en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 41-60.
    9. F Alexandre & P Bacao, 2006. "Investment and Non-fundamental Movements in Asset Prices: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 65-95, March.
    10. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    11. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
    12. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    13. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    14. Samahita Phul, 2024. "Efficacy of Monetary Policy Transmission During the Flexible Inflation Targeting Regime in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(1), pages 70-99, June.
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    16. Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc, 2001. "Investment policy, internal financing and ownership concentration in the UK," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 257-284, September.
    17. Diego Comin & Ana Maria Santacreu & Mark Gertler & Phuong Ngo, 2018. "Stock Price Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 1147, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Priit Jeenas & Ricardo Lagos, 2024. "Q-Monetary Transmission," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(3), pages 971-1012.
    19. Hülsewig Oliver & Winker Peter & Worms Andreas, 2004. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission: A VECM Analysis for Germany / Bankkredite und geldpolitische Transmission: Eine VECM Analyse für Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(5), pages 511-529, October.
    20. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
    21. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1995_011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.