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Can the Chinese bond market facilitate a globalizing renminbi?

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  • Ma, Guonan
  • Yao, Wang

Abstract

A global renminbi needs to be backed by a large, deep and liquid renminbi bond market with a world-class Chinese government bond (CGB) market as its core. China's CGB market is the seventh largest in the world while sitting alongside a huge but non-tradable and captive central bank liability in the form of required reserves. By transforming the non-tradable cen-tral bank liabilities into homogeneous and tradable CGBs through halving the high Chinese reserve requirements, the size of the CGB market can easily double. This would help over-come some market impediments and elevate the CGBs to a top three government bond mar-ket globally, boosting market liquidity while trimming distortions to the banking system. With a foreign ownership similar to that of the JGBs, CGBs held by foreign investors may increase ten-fold by 2020, approaching 5 percent of the 2014 global foreign reserves and facilitating a potential global renminbi, especially in the wake of the renminbi's inclusion into the basket of the IMF Special Drawing Rights.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Guonan & Yao, Wang, 2016. "Can the Chinese bond market facilitate a globalizing renminbi?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2016_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Guonan Ma & Eli Remolona, 2006. "Developing corporate bond markets in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Developing corporate bond markets in Asia, volume 26, pages 13-21, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Guonan Ma, 2007. "Who Pays China's Bank Restructuring Bill?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 46-71, Winter.
    3. Robert McCauley & Eli Remolona, 2000. "Size and liquidity of government bond markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, November.
    4. Guonan Ma & Eli Remolona & He Jianxiong, 2006. "Developing corporate bond markets in Asia: a synopsis of the Kunming discussions," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Developing corporate bond markets in Asia, volume 26, pages 1-6, Bank for International Settlements.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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