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History and the Equity Risk Premium

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  • William Goetzmann
  • Roger Ibbotson

Abstract

We summarize some of our own past findings and place them in the context of the historical development of the idea of the equity risk premium and its empirical measurement by financial economists. In particular, we focus on how the theory of compensation for investment risk developed in the 20th century in tandem with the empirical analysis of historical investment performance. Finally, we update our study of the historical performance of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1792 to the present, and include a measure of the U.S. equity risk premium over more than two centuries. This last section is based upon indices constructed from individual stock and dividend data collected over a decade of research at the Yale School of Management, and contributions by other scholars.

Suggested Citation

  • William Goetzmann & Roger Ibbotson, 2005. "History and the Equity Risk Premium," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm448, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:wpaper:ysm448
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    File URL: https://repec.som.yale.edu/icfpub/publications/2382.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 399-426, July.
    3. Goetzmann, William N. & Ibbotson, Roger G. & Peng, Liang, 2001. "A new historical database for the NYSE 1815 to 1925: Performance and predictability," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
    5. Ibbotson, Roger G & Sinquefield, Rex A, 1976. "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Simulations of the Future (1976-2000)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(3), pages 313-338, July.
    6. Ibbotson, Roger G & Sinquefield, Rex A, 1976. "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926-1974)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 11-47, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jie Zhu, 2019. "Estimating The Equity Risk Premium: The Case Of Greater China," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(2), pages 195-212, July.
    2. Mikhail Samonov & Nonna Sorokina, 2024. "A century of asset allocation crash risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 383-406, July.

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    Keywords

    financial history; equity premium;

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