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BREAKING INTO THE BLACKBOX: Trend Following, Stop Losses, and the Frequency of Trading: the case of the S&P500

Author

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  • Andrew Clare
  • James Seaton
  • Peter N Smith
  • Stephen Thomas

Abstract

In this paper we compare a variety of technical trading rules in the context of investing in the S&P500 index. These rules are increasingly popular both among retail investors and CTAs and similar investment funds. We find that a range of fairly simple rules, including the popular 200-day moving average trading rule, dominate the long only, passive investment in the index. In particular, using the latter rule we find that popular stop loss rules do not add value and that monthly end of month investment decision rules are superior to those which trade more frequently: this adds to the growing view that trading can damage your wealth. Finally we compare the MA rule with a variety of simple fundamental metrics and find the latter far inferior to the technical rules over the last 60 years of investing.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2012. "BREAKING INTO THE BLACKBOX: Trend Following, Stop Losses, and the Frequency of Trading: the case of the S&P500," Discussion Papers 12/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:12/11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2019. "The Rehabilitation of Glidepath Investing," Discussion Papers 19/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Almira Biglova & Sergio Ortobelli & Frank J Fabozzi, 2014. "Portfolio selection in the presence of systemic risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(5), pages 285-299, October.
    3. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Giner, Javier, 2022. "Time series momentum in the US stock market: Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Valeriy Zakamulin & Javier Giner, 2020. "Trend following with momentum versus moving averages: a tale of differences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 985-1007, June.
    5. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Giner, Javier, 2023. "Optimal trend-following with transaction costs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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    Keywords

    trend following; S&P500; stop losses; trading frequency; fundamental investment metrics.;
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