IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/wpaper/y2015i140.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule

Author

Listed:
  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Christian Dreger

Abstract

Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both international spillovers, among them dependencies in the interest rate setting of central banks, and nonlinear reaction patterns can offer a more realistic specification of the Taylor rule of four major central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule," FIW Working Paper series 140, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_140_BeckmannBelkeDreger.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: none
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Colin Gray, 2013. "Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 173-184, June.
    3. Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
    4. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Yuhua Cui, 2010. "US–Euro Area Monetary Policy Interdependence: New Evidence from Taylor Rule‐based VECMs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 778-797, May.
    8. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
    9. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
    10. Richard H. Clarida, 2012. "What Has—and Has Not—Been Learned about Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment? A Review of the 2000s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 123-140, February.
    11. Timberlake, Richard H., 1993. "Monetary Policy in the United States," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226803845, October.
    12. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    14. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
    15. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2005. "Asymmetries in the Trans-Atlantic Monetary Policy Relationship: Does the ECB follow the Fed?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1428, CESifo.
    16. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
    17. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in OECD countries: how important is the extent of policy uncertainty?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 683-703, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2017. "The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 162-170.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Dreger, Christian, 2014. "Does the foreign interest rate matter for monetary policy? Evidence from nonlinear Taylor rules," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100450, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    4. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Stephen Brown, 2017. "Re-examining the ECB’s two-pillar monetary policy strategy: Are there any deviations during and the pre-financial crisis periods?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 585-607, August.
    5. Schepp, Zoltán & Abaligeti, Gallusz & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "Időben változó Taylor-szabály a hazai monetáris politika jellemzésére [A time-varying parameter Taylor rule for Hungarian monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-43.
    6. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2018. "Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 243-257.
    10. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB Experience: Frankfurt Still Matters!," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(2), pages 147-170, July.
    11. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Explaining ECB and Fed interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 25929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The Low-Interest-Rate Environment, Global Liquidity Spillovers and Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(2), pages 313-334, June.
    14. Gießler, Stefan, 2020. "The evolution of monetary policy in Latin American economies: Responsiveness to inflation under different degrees of credibility," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Fang‐Shuo Chang & Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Po‐Yuan Wang, 2020. "Politics and the UK's monetary policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 486-522, November.
    16. Kesavarajah Mayandy, 2019. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence From Sri Lanka," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 485-506, December.
    17. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
    18. Jensen, Henrik & ,, 2010. "What Drives the European Central Bank's Interest-Rate Changes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
    20. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; international spillovers; monetary policy interaction; smooth transition models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.