IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/ecbook/y2011m03iiii-004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration: Fiscal Policy, Trade Integration and the European Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma
  • Michael Pfaffermayr
  • Octavio Fernández-Amador
  • Catherine Keppel

Abstract

We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the period 1995-2008. There is a broad consensus that the relationship between fiscal policy and business cycle comovements and between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are subject to endogeneity problems. We instrument fiscal budget surplus by means of (exogenous) political determinants of fiscal policy acknowledged by the literature, while trade integration is instrumented using covariates which summarize the integration status of countries in the sample, GDP per capita differences with respect to the EU and trade specialization within the EU framework. Our results show that both fiscal policy and trade integration are important determinants of cyclical synchronization. We can conclude that once a high degree of trade integration is reached by countries involved in the European integration process, the role of fiscal policy is particularly relevant and differences in fiscal shocks should be analyzed in detail as a source of coherence in cyclical comovements in Europe. Furthermore, fiscal deficits are shown to be an important potential source of idiosyncratic macroeconomic fluctuations, especially in the eurozone. Our results confirm the rationale of monitoring fiscal developments to assess the adequacy of potential future EMU countries and the need for a broad agreement concerning fiscal policy at the EU level.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Michael Pfaffermayr & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Catherine Keppel, 2011. "Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration: Fiscal Policy, Trade Integration and the European Business Cycle," FIW Research Reports series III-004, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2011:m:03:i:iii-004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.fiw.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/04.ResearchReport.Crespo-Cuaresma_Pfaffermayr.Macroeconomic_Aspects_of_European_Integration-1.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: none
    File URL: https://www.fiw.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/04.PolicyNote.Crespo-Cuaresma_Pfaffermayr.Macroeconomic_Aspects_of_European_Integration.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: none
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    2. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:056 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 239-259.
    4. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:054 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    2. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, July.
    3. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    4. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Current account dynamics and the housing cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-43.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as16 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:wsr:ecbook:2011:i:iii-004 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    8. Luboš Hanus & Lukáš Vácha, 2020. "Growth cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1779-1795, April.
    9. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    10. Triandafil, Cristina Maria, 2011. "The Analysis Of The Convergence Criteria. Empirical Perspective In The Context Of The Sustainable Character Highlight," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 111205, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    11. TAPSOBA, Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA & SEMBENE, Daouda & GAMMADIGB, Vigninou & ISSIFOU, Ismaël, 2019. "Fiscal Convergence in Africa: What Role for Regional Economic Communities?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 214-235.
    12. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    13. Dmitrij Celov & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2022. "Business Cycles in the EU: A Comprehensive Comparison Across Methods," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 99-146, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 239-259.
    15. Antonio Pacifico, 2019. "Panel Bayesian VAR Modeling for Policy and Forecasting when dealing with confounding and latent effects," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 1-1.
    16. Kapounek, Svatopluk & Kučerová, Zuzana, 2019. "Historical decoupling in the EU: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 265-280.
    17. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Exploring CESEE-EMU Synchronisation Patterns," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 255-255, May.
    18. Carstensen, K. & Salzmann, L., 2017. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 134-161.
    19. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    20. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as14 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:056 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
    23. Antonio Pacifico, 2019. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR Model to Deal with Model Misspecification and Unobserved Heterogeneity Problems," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    24. Matesanz, David & Ortega, Guillermo J., 2016. "On business cycles synchronization in Europe: A note on network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 287-296.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2011:m:03:i:iii-004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.