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Monetary Policy And Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hošek, Jan

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Komárek, Luboš

    (Czech National Bank,)

  • Motl, Martin

    (Czech National Bank,)

Abstract

This article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices and, in a broader sense, commodity prices. Firstly, it focuses on describing the relationship between key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodity prices relative to oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of “transmission channels” through which monetary policy can be propagated to oil prices (or prices of commodities). It then provides an insight into the CNB’s forecasting process, both by looking retrospectively at the oil price outlook in the past and by analysing a transitory and a permanent shock (a rise in the oil price of USD 30/b). The simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. USD 77.50/b.

Suggested Citation

  • Hošek, Jan & Komárek, Luboš & Motl, Martin, 2010. "Monetary Policy And Oil Prices," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 947, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:947
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2010/twerp_947.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, May.
    2. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 109-124, May.
    3. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(1), pages 3-23.
    4. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nzeh Innocent Chile & Innocent.U. Duru & Abubakar Yusuf & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze, 2021. "Modelling the Monetary Impact of Oil Price Volatility in Nigeria: Evidence from GARCH Models," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 70-94, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price ; monetary policy ; real interest rate ; oil price shock JEL Classification: G12 ; G14 ; D53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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