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Local Decline and Populism

Author

Listed:
  • Edenhofer, Jacob

    (University of Oxford)

  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (University of Warwick & Bonn and affiliated with CEPR, CAGE, NIESR, ECONtribute, Grantham Institute)

  • Garg, Prashant

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83,000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism.

Suggested Citation

  • Edenhofer, Jacob & Fetzer, Thiemo & Garg, Prashant, 2024. "Local Decline and Populism," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1508, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1508
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2024/twerp_1508_-_fetzer.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local Economic Conditions ; Populism ; High-street Vacancies ; Unemployment ; Urban Transformation JEL Codes: D72 ; R11 ; R12 ; R23;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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