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Symetrie des chocs touchant les regions canadiennes et choix d'un regime de change

Author

Listed:
  • Alain DeSerres

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Rene Lalonde

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

Dans la presente etude, les auteurs tentent de verifier si le principal avantage du taux de change flexible entre le Canada et les Etats-Unis, qui est de permettre un ajustement rapide du taux de change reel apres un choc asymetrique, se manifeste autant sur le plan regional que sur le plan national. Pour ce faire, ils essaient de determiner si les chocs subis par les differentes regions canadiennes ont une composante commune significative et surtout si celle-ci est plus importante que la composante commune aux chocs subis par les Etats-Unis. Dans une premiere etape, ils identifient dans les diverses regions canadiennes et aux Etats-Unis les chocs de demande reels et monetaires ainsi que les chocs d'offre, en imposant certaines restrictions aux effets que ces chocs peuvent avoir a long terme sur le niveau de la production, des prix et des encaisses reelles. Dans une deuxieme etape, a partir de l'estimation d'un modele d'espace d'etat, les auteurs identifient, pour chacune des regions ainsi que pour les chocs reels d'offre et de demande examines separement, une composante commune a l'ensemble des regions canadiennes, une composante commune aux chocs americains et une composante specifique a chaque region. De facon generale, les resultats montrent que tous les types de chocs touchant les regions canadiennes sont statistiquement relies a la composante commune canadienne des chocs et que, dans plusieurs cas, celle-ci depasse en importance la composante specifique. De plus, la composante commune canadienne est toujours beaucoup plus importante que la composante commune aux chocs americains.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1995. "Symetrie des chocs touchant les regions canadiennes et choix d'un regime de change," Macroeconomics 9502001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9502001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Chernis, Tony & Cheung, Calista & Velasco, Gabriella, 2020. "A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 851-872.
    2. Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Staff Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada.
    3. Patrick-Hervé Mbouombouo Mfossa, 2015. "GOUVERNANCE ECONOMIQUE ET STABILISATION DES CHOCS ASYMETRIQUES: Quel mécanisme pour une meilleure viabilité de la CEMAC ?," Working Papers hal-01213989, HAL.

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