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On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Erdem Basci

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

  • Mehmet Fatih Ekinci

    (University of Houston)

  • Murat Yulek

    (IMF)

Abstract

Fiscal rules are being increasingly used by both emerging and developed economies. This paper analyzes two alternative fiscal policy rules in terms of their impact on debt sustainability: a rule that fixes the ratio of primary surplus to GDP (“fixed surplus rule”) and one that sets the primary surplus as a linear function of debt to GDP ratio (“variable surplus rule”). A simple debt dynamics equation, incorporating real shocks, is constructed, and the probability of exceeding the critical debt level is simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. The results show that the variable surplus rule performs better than the simple fixed surplus rule, by reducing debt sustainability concerns and the necessary medium-term primary surplus. This result hinges on the government’s ability to make a credible commitment to the variable surplus rule in the medium run.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdem Basci & Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Murat Yulek, 2004. "On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules," Macroeconomics 0409006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    2. Mr. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2004. "Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 2004/051, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Halpern, László & Neményi, Judit, 2002. "Fiscal Foundation of Convergence to European Union in Pre-Accession Transition Countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Mr. George Kopits, 2001. "Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament?," IMF Working Papers 2001/145, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
    6. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saibu Olufemi Muibi, 2015. "Determining Optimal Crude Oil Price Benchmark in Nigeria: An Empirical Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(58), pages 51-80, December.
    2. Iulia Andreea Bucur & Simona Elena Dragomirescu, 2013. "An Analysis Of The Fiscal Convergence Criteria In The European Union In Terms Of The Sustainability," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 18.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt dynamics; Monte-Carlo simulation; fiscal policy rules; debt sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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