IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0003004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate

Author

Listed:
  • William A. Barnett

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Melvin J. Hinich

    (University of Texas - Austin)

  • Piyu Yue

    (IC2 Institute at the U. of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

In aggregation theory, index numbers are judged relative to their ability to track the exact aggregator functions nested within the economy's structure. Within the monetary sector, Barnett, Liu, and Jensen (1997) compared two statistical index numbers: the Divisia monetary aggregate and the simple sum monetary aggregate. They produced those comparisons using simulated data. In this paper, we again compare those two statistical index numbers with the exact rational expectations monetary aggregate, but we use actual data. Since we are not using simulated data, we estimate the parameters of the Euler equations and thereby of the nested monetary aggregator function using generalized method of moments. We explore the tracking errors of the two index numbers relative to the estimated exact aggregate. We investigate the circumstances under which risk aversion increases tracking error. We also use polyspectral methods to test for the existence of remaining nonlinear structure in the residual tracking errors

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Melvin J. Hinich & Piyu Yue, 2000. "The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate," Macroeconomics 0003004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0003004
    Note: Type of Document - word doc, pdf and ps; prepared on Win 95; pages: 46 ; figures included.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0003/0003004.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0003/0003004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0003/0003004.doc.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hinich, Melvin J. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1985. "Identification of the coefficients in a non-linear : time series of the quadratic type," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 269-288.
    2. James M. Poterba & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1986. "Money in the Utility Function: An Empirical Implementation," Working papers 408, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "Robustness of Nonlinearity and Chaos Tests to Measurement Error, Inference Method, and Sample Size," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 529-548, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. William A. Barnett & Michael Wolfe, 2004. "Semi-nonparametric Bayesian Estimation of the Asymptotically Ideal Production Model1," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 303-349, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. K. Alec Chrystal & Ronald MacDonald, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the recent behavior and usefulness of simple-sum and weighted measures of the money stock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 73-109.
    7. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 581-615, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 2000. "Estimating Policy-Invariant Deep Parameters in the Financial Sector When Risk and Growth Matter," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 530-557, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Belongia, Michael T & Chalfant, James A, 1989. "The Changing Empirical Definition of Money: Some Estimates from a Model of the Demand for Money Substitutes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 387-397, April.
    10. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    12. William A. Barnett & Melvin Hinich & Piyu Yue, 2000. "Monitoring Monetary Aggregates Under Risk Aversion," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 217-244, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hong, Yongmiao, 1996. "Consistent Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 837-864, July.
    15. Melvin J. Hinich, 1982. "Testing For Gaussianity And Linearity Of A Stationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 169-176, May.
    16. William A. Barnett & Edward K. Offenbacher & Paul A. Spindt, 2000. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 360-388, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Daniel L. Thornton & Piyu Yue, 1992. "An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 35-52.
    18. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Yi & Jensen, Mark, 1997. "Capm Risk Adjustment For Exact Aggregation Over Financial Assets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 485-512, June.
    19. Swofford, James L & Whitney, Gerald A, 1987. "Nonparametric Tests of Utility Maximization and Weak Separability for Consumption, Leisure and Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 458-464, August.
    20. Richard A. Ashley & Douglas M. Patterson & Melvin J. Hinich, 1986. "A Diagnostic Test For Nonlinear Serial Dependence In Time Series Fitting Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 165-178, May.
    21. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521370905, October.
    22. PHLIPS, Louis & SPINNEWYN, Frans, 1982. "Rationality versus myopia in dynamic demand systems," LIDAM Reprints CORE 468, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    23. William A. Barnett & Ge Zhou, 2004. "Financial Firm's Production and Supply-Side Monetary Aggregation Under Dynamic Uncertainty," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 381-427, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    24. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
    25. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    26. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424318, October.
    27. Barnett,William A. & Cornet,Bernard & D'Aspremont,Claude & Gabszewicz,Jean & Mas-Colell,Andreu (ed.), 1991. "Equilibrium Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521392198, October.
    28. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    29. Michael T. Belongia & Jane M. Binner (ed.), 2000. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28823-2, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Heather L. R. Tierney, 2011. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 7, pages 207-249, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Michael T. Belongia, 1992. "Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability," Working Papers 1992-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-53.
    4. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2011. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 3, pages 85-105, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. William Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "Intertemporally non-separable monetary-asset risk adjustment and aggregation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(13), pages 1-9.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2004:i:13:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas, 2002. "The UK Personal Sector Demand for Risky Money," Working Papers 2002:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas & de Peretti, Philipe, 2002. "Is UK Risky Money Weakly Separable? A Stochastic Approach," Working Papers 2002:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1996. "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," Econometrics 9602002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Jun 1999.
    2. William Barnett & Barry E. Jones & Milka Kirova & Travis D. Nesmith & Meenakshi Pasupathy1, 2004. "The Nonlinear Skeletons in the Closet," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200403, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised May 2004.
    3. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu, 2000. "Beyond the Risk-neutral Utility Function," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Michael T. Belongia & Jane M. Binner (ed.), Divisia Monetary Aggregates, chapter 1, pages 11-27, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Jones, Barry E. & Dutkowsky, Donald H. & Elger, Thomas, 2005. "Sweep programs and optimal monetary aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 483-508, February.
    6. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
    7. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Heather L. R. Tierney, 2011. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 7, pages 207-249, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. William Barnett & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 2003. "Regularity of the Generalized Quadratic Production Model: A Counterexample," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 135-154.
    9. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu & Haiyang Xu & Mark Jensen, 1996. "The CAPM Risk Adjustment Needed for Exact Aggregation over Financial Assets," Econometrics 9602003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 1, pages 1-51, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu, 1996. "The CAPM-Extended Divisia Monetary Aggregate with Exact Tracking under Risk," Finance 9602001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Elger Thomas & Binner Jane M., 2004. "The UK Household Sector Demand for Risky Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Ryan S. Mattson & Philippe de Peretti, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Real Divisia Money in Persistence-Robust Econometric Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00984827, HAL.
    14. Barnett, William A., 1997. "Fellow's opinion: Econometrics, data, and the world wide web," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 297-302, April.
    15. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 1997. "Special report: The monetary services index project of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: introduction to the St. Louis monetary services index project," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 25-30.
    16. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    17. William A. Barnett & Liting Su, 2014. "The Joint Services of Money and Credit," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201407, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2014.
    18. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    19. Drake, Leigh & Fleissig, Adrian R., 2010. "Substitution between monetary assets and consumer goods: New evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2811-2821, November.
    20. William A. Barnett & Haiyang Xu, 1998. "Money Velocity with Interest Rate Stochastic Volatility and Exact Aggregation," Macroeconomics 9803004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary aggregation; index number theory; spectral analysis; nonlinearity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0003004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.