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Revisiting Risky Money

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Abstract

Risk was first incorporated into monetary aggregation over thirty-five years ago,using a stochastic version of the workhorse money-in-the-utility-function model.Nevertheless, the mathematical foundations of this stochastic model remain shaky.To firm the foundations, this paper employs a slightly richer probability conceptthan standard Borel-measurability, which enables me to prove the existence of awell-behaved solution and to derive stochastic Euler equations. This measurabilityapproach is long-established albeit less common in economics, possibly because the derivation of stochastic Euler equations is new. Importantly, the problem’s economics are not restricted by the approach. Consequently, the results provide firm footing for the growing monetary aggregation under risk literature, which integrates monetary and finance theory. As crypto-currencies and stable coins garner more attention, solidifying the foundations of risky money becomes more critical. The method also supports deriving stochastic Euler equations for any dynamic economics problem that features contemporaneous uncertainty about prices, including asset pricing models like CAPM and stochastic consumer choice models.

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  • Travis D. Nesmith, 2024. "Revisiting Risky Money," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-90
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.090
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money; Risk; Monetary aggregation; Asset pricing; Dynamic programming; Stochastic modeling; Uncertainty; Euler equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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