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On Singaporean Dollar-U.S. Dollar and Purchasing Power Parity

Author

Listed:
  • Venus Khim-Sen Liew

    (Universiti Putra Malaysia)

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

    (Universiti Putra Malaysia)

  • Kian-Ping Lim

    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

Abstract

This study re-examines the validity of relationship between Singapore Dollar-US Dollar exchange rate and the relative price using the latest econometric methodologies that accounts for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)- type non-linear mean-reverting adjustment process of the nominal Singapore dollar-US dollar rate towards consumer price index ratio. Unlike previous finding of linear cointegration relationship between nominal Singapore Dollar-US Dollar exchange rate and consumer price index ratio, this study shows that the relationship is in fact non- linear in nature. The major economic implications of our findings includes: (1) Policy makers need to take non-linearity into consideration on their policy decision; (2) Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is able to maintain the macroeconomic equilibrium albeit the authority’s strong dollar policy; and (3) One should keep track on Singapore monetary policy and other innovations in aggregate demand in order to closely monitor the movement of Singapore exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Kian-Ping Lim, 2004. "On Singaporean Dollar-U.S. Dollar and Purchasing Power Parity," International Trade 0405004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0405004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    2. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    3. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for nonlinear Granger causality from fundamentals to exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 69-82, January.
    4. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    5. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    6. George Kapetanios, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root against Nonlinear STAR Models," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    8. Ashok Parikh & Geoffrey Williams, 1998. "Modelling real exchange rate behaviour: a cross-country study," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 577-587.
    9. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
    10. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    11. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen & Lim Kian Ping, 2003. "Exchange Rates Forecasting Model: An Alternative Estimation Procedure," International Finance 0307005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
    13. Duc-Tho Nguyen & Yao Chye Chiang, 1989. "Exchange Rate Determination: The Case of Singapore," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 1989-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dilem Yıldırım, 2016. "Empirical Investigation of Purchasing Power Parity for Turkey: Evidence from Recent Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," ERC Working Papers 1604, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2016.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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