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The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna

Author

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  • Martin Melecky

    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

  • Lubos Komarek

    (Czech National Bank)

Abstract

The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for non-stationary time series. The considered potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate are the productivity differential, the interest rate differential, the terms of trade, net foreign direct investment, net foreign assets, government consumption and the degree of openness. We find that the Czech koruna was on average undervalued over the period 1994 to 2004 by about 7 percent with respect to the estimated BEER. The significant determinants of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna appear to be the productivity differential, the real interest rate differential, the terms of trade and the net foreign direct investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Melecky & Lubos Komarek, 2005. "The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," International Finance 0504010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0504010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2007. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 307-326, July.
    2. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb06/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Martin Melecký & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 14(1), pages 105-121, May.
    4. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Florina PINZARU & Mihaela DINU & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2014. "Fixing the Central Parity and the Evolution of the Currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism II in the Countries that Joined the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 2(4), pages 21-40, April.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb05/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.
    8. Mr. Claudio A Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2006/221, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:065 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium Exchange Rate Modelling; Time-Series Analysis; Exchange Rate Misalignments; Czech Republic; ERMII;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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