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What Makes Balance Sheet Effects Detrimental For The Country Risk Premium?

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  • ALICIA GARCIA HERRERO

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

  • JUAN CARLOS BERGANZA

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

Abstract

This paper builds upon the empirical literature on the macroeconomic impact of real exchange rate depreciations for a sample of 27 emerging economies. We find that real exchange rate depreciations tend to increase a country’s risk premium. This effect is neither linear nor symmetric: large real exchange depreciations are much more detrimental and real appreciations do not seem to reduce the risk premium. We also show that the main channels for the real exchange rate to affect country risk are external and domestic balance sheet effects, stemming from the sudden increase in the stock of external or domestic dollar-denominated debt, respectively. This is particularly the case in the countries with the largest financial imperfections. Competitiveness is not an important enough factor to outweigh this negative effect. Finally, fixed exchange rate regimes tend to amplify balance sheet effects, beyond the extent of real depreciation. The data indicates that it could be due to a larger accumulation of external debt under fixed regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Garcia Herrero & Juan Carlos Berganza, 2004. "What Makes Balance Sheet Effects Detrimental For The Country Risk Premium?," International Finance 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0408002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32
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    Cited by:

    1. Fritz, Barbara & Mühlich, Laurissa, 2007. "South-south monetary integration: the case for a research framework beyond the theory of optimum currency area," Discussion Papers 2007/20, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    3. Stephanie Prat, 2007. "The Relevance of Currency Mismatch Indicators: an Analysis Through Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 111, pages 101-122.
    4. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    5. Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 27-52, February.
    6. Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 371, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Laurissa Mühlich, 2011. "South–South Regional Monetary Cooperation: Potential Gains for Developing Countries and Emerging Markets," Chapters, in: Ulrich Volz (ed.), Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Working Papers 0513, Banco de España.
    9. Fritz, Barbara & Mühlich, Laurissa, 2006. "Regional Monetary Integration among Developing Countries: New Opportunities for Macroeconomic Stability beyond the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas?," GIGA Working Papers 38, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    10. Vanessa Olakemi Dovonou, 2023. "Trilemma revisited with dollar dominance in trade and finance," Working Papers 2023.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004. "Dollars, Debt and the IFIs: Dedollarizing Multilateral Lending," Business School Working Papers dedollmultlending, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    12. Cayirli, Omer & Aktas, Huseyin & Kayalidere, Koray, 2022. "A closer look into the behavior of emerging market sovereign spreads: State-dependent and asymmetric behaviors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 522-548.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance sheet effects; financial accelerator theories; exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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