IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/0103003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Craine

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

If dollarization is a credible commitment to maintain a fixed exchange rate, then it is an irreversible decision. This paper explicitly models the unique feature -- irreversibility -- of a dollarization policy. In addition, it is the first paper to recognize that if a dollarization is a potential exchange rate regime choice, then the equilibrium is a mixed strategy equilibrium. The case of Argentina's possible dollarization is considered. I compute Nash equilibria and the transition probabilities that a country will move from a currency board regime to dollarizing, or floating, in one year, or two years, out to seven years. I model shocks to the exchange rate as a jump-diffusion process. The jumps represent large "asymmetric" shocks to the exchange rate -- such as Brazil's 1999 devaluation. The probability of dollarization is inversely related to the jump probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Craine, 2001. "Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision," International Finance 0103003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0103003
    Note: 29 pages, Acrobat .pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/0103/0103003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    3. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, April.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1991. "The Perils of Sterilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 921-926, December.
    6. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 1997. "Was the French Franc Crisis a Sunspot Equilibrium?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233613, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    7. Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "On the Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization Policy Is Not Credible and Financial Markets are Imperfect," Working Papers 00-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    8. Kenneth M. Kletzer & Mark M. Spiegel, 1996. "Speculative capital inflows and exchange rate targeting in the Pacific Basin," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Rust, John, 1996. "Numerical dynamic programming in economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 619-729, Elsevier.
    10. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    11. Kenneth M. Kletzer & Mark M. Spiegel, 1996. "Speculative capital inflows and exchange rate targeting in the Pacific Basin: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 409-435.
    12. Ozkan, F. Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1998. "A currency crisis model with an optimising policymaker," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 339-364, April.
    13. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    15. Ilan Goldfajn & Gino Olivares, 2000. "Is adopting Full Dollarization the solution? Looking at the evidence," Textos para discussão 416, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Henri Bourguinat & Larbi Dohni, 2002. "La dollarisation comme solution en dernier ressort," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 17(1), pages 57-96.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Craine, Roger, 2001. "Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt404915zn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Roger Craine, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regime Credibility, the Agency Cost of Capital and Devaluation," International Finance 9902002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    4. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    6. Pastine, Ivan, 2002. "Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 197-229, June.
    7. Lohano, Heman Das, 2002. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis of Farmland Investment and Financial Management," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 309035, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    8. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
    9. Riad Dahel, "undated". "On the Predictability of Currency Crises: The Use of Indicators in the Case of Arab Countries," API-Working Paper Series 0003, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    10. F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 541-572, April.
    11. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2004. "Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 559-586, September.
    12. Gamba, Andrea & Tesser, Matteo, 2009. "Structural estimation of real options models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 798-816, April.
    13. Mr. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 2005/013, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Menna Bizuneh, 2022. "Are We Floating Yet? Duration of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 63-89, January.
    15. Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2003. "Explaining ERM realignments: Insights from optimising models of currency crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 491-507, December.
    16. Jenny Corbett & Gregor Irwin & David Vines, 1999. "From Asian Miracle to Asian Crisis: Why Vulnerability, Why Collapse?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.),Capital Flows and the International Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "The Sustainability of Monetary Unions. Can the Euro Survive?," CEIS Research Paper 226, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Mar 2012.
    18. Ozkan, F. Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1998. "A currency crisis model with an optimising policymaker," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 339-364, April.
    19. Sebastian Edwards & Igal Magendzo, 2003. "A Currency of One's Own? An Empirical Investigation on Dollarization and Independent Currency Unions," NBER Working Papers 9514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0103003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.