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Pricing Of S&P 100 Index Options Based On Garch Volatility Estimates

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  • Ayla Ogus

    (Izmir University of Economics)

Abstract

This paper is a contribution to the vast literature on the inefficiency in the index options markets. Previous research has found that trading based on implied volatility forecasts do not generate positive profits for the S&P 500 index options but GARCH volatility forecasts do. Trading based on implied volatility forecasts for the S&P 100 index options also fail to generate profits in excess of transaction costs. This paper shows that trading based on GARCH volatility forecast generates profits in excess of transaction costs for the S&P 100 index options hence there is systematic mispricing in the S&P index options markets. GARCH models fair well due to their flexibility to incorporate asymmetric and nonlinear volatility effects. Improved pricing models should work as well or better.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayla Ogus, 2005. "Pricing Of S&P 100 Index Options Based On Garch Volatility Estimates," Finance 0504005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0504005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; S&P100; index options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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