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An Econometric Analysis of the Nigerian Consumer Price Index

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Sylvanus I Ikhide

    (Central Bank of Botswana)

Abstract

A theoretical model of the inflationary process in Nigeria is developed using monetary aggregates, the exchange rate, and the implicit cost of holding idle cash balances. Parameter estimation is accomplished using quarterly data for 1970:1 through 1993:4 and a nonlinear ARMAX procedure. Equations are estimated using M1 and M2 money suypply measures. Empirical traits for both equations are similar, but out-of- sample simulations with the M2 version generate lower infaltion forecasts than those of the M1 equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Sylvanus I Ikhide, 2004. "An Econometric Analysis of the Nigerian Consumer Price Index," Development and Comp Systems 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0407010
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-360, August.
    3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard A Hirth & Mark B Smith, 2004. "Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals," Macroeconomics 0409009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Brian Motley, 1993. "Inflation and growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec31.
    5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Developing Country Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0407031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sheehey, Edmund J, 1976. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 692-694, September.
    7. Hanson, James A., 1985. "Inflation and imported input prices in some inflationary Latin American economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 395-410, August.
    8. Tomas M Fullerton & Ajay Kapur, 1991. "Predicción de multiplicadores monetarios en Colombia, Ecuador y Venezuela," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 35, pages 53-86.
    9. Sylvanus I. Ikhide, 1993. "Positive Interest Rates: Financial Deepening and the Mobilisation of Savings in Africa," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 11(4), pages 367-382, December.
    10. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Short-Run Price Movements in Ecuador," Macroeconomics 0407028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    12. Thomas M. Fullerton, 1993. "Un modelo macroeconométrico para pronosticar la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 12(24), pages 101-136, December.
    13. Betancourt, Roger R, 1976. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 688-691, September.
    14. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    15. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1993. "Inflationary trends in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-468, August.
    16. Sheehey, Edmund J., 1980. "Money, income and prices in Latin America : An empirical note," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 345-357, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr., 1999. "Inflationary pressure determinants in México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(1), pages 33-51.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Nigeria; Developing Country Macroeconometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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