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The International Dollar Standard and Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit

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  • Ronald McKinnon

Abstract

April 2001 For more than 20 years, the United States has run current-account deficits with the rest of the world—and is now the world’s largest international debtor. Because the world is on a dollar standard, the United States is unique in having a virtually unlimited international line of credit which is largely denominated in its own currency, i.e., dollars. In contrast, foreign debtor countries must learn to live with currency mismatches where their banks’ and other corporate international liabilities are dollar denominated but their assets are denominated in the domestic currency. As these mismatches cumulate, any foreign country is ultimately forced to repay its debts in order to avoid a run on its currency. But however precarious and over-leveraged the financing of individual American borrowers—including American banks, which intermediate such borrowing internationally—might be, they are invulnerable to dollar devaluation. In effect, America’s collective current-account deficits are sustainable indefinitely. Working Papers Index

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  • Ronald McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Working Papers 01013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:01013
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    1. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1996. "The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133180, December.
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    1. Mr. Joshua E. Greene & Ms. Magda E. Kandil, 2002. "The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U. S. Balance of Payments," IMF Working Papers 2002/045, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Yan, Ho-don, 2007. "Does capital mobility finance or cause a current account imbalance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
    4. Fabian Lindner, 2014. "Haben die knappen Weltersparnisse die US-Immobilienblase finanziert?," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 40(1), pages 33-61.
    5. Michael Frenkel & Jan Christoph Rülke & Lilli Zimmermann, 2011. "Do Current Account Forecasters Herd? – Evidence from the Euro Area and the G7 Countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-01, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    6. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2004. "Optimum Currency Areas and Key Currencies: Mundell I versus Mundell II," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 689-715, November.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September.
    8. Ogawa, Eiji & Kudo, Takeshi, 2007. "Asymmetric responses of East Asian currencies to the US dollar depreciation for reducing the US current account deficits," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 175-194, February.
    9. Fabian Lindner, 2015. "Did Scarce Global Savings Finance the US Real Estate Bubble? The “Global Saving Glut” thesis from a Stock Flow Consistent Perspective," IMK Working Paper 155-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Fabian Lindner, 2015. "Does Saving Increase the Supply of Credit? A Critique of Loanable Funds Theory," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2015(4), pages 1-1, February.
    11. Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    12. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Are current account deficits really sustainable in the G-7 countries?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 190-201.
    13. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, June.
    14. Devereux, Michael B. & Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2007. "Global monetary policy under a dollar standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-132, March.
    15. Magda Kandil, 2011. "Financial flows to developing and advanced countries: determinants and implications," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 60-91, April.
    16. Guohua He & Xinxin Chang, 2013. "The Dollar Standard and Stability of China’s Macroeconomy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 186-204, December.
    17. Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2005. "Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-237, April.
    18. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Are there different linkages of foreign capital inflows and the current account between industrial countries and emerging markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 25-54, August.
    19. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2012. "A monetary model of China–US trade relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-238.
    20. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Stabilität und Staatsschulden: die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik in der strategischen Sackgasse," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(3), pages 429-444.
    21. Annie Corbin, 2003. "Statut de monnaie de réserve du dollar et seigneuriage américain : bilan et perspectives," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(3), pages 265-276.
    22. Daniela Bragoli & Piero Ganugi & Giancarlo Ianulardo, 2013. "Gini’s transvariation analysis: an application on financial crises in developing countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 153-174, February.
    23. Jens R Clausen & Magda Kandil, 2009. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 338-366.
    24. William Miles, 2003. "Fixed exchange rates and sticky prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 575-586.
    25. Akbar Komijani & Hossein Tavakolian, 2011. "The Composition of Foreign Reserves of the Central Banks of Selected Countries: Will the Euro Replace the Dollar?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 143-156, December.

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