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Airline Price Competition: A Time Series Analysis of 'Low-Cost' Carriers

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  • David Edward Pitfield

Abstract

This paper, after providing an introduction to the operating context of low cost carriers in Europe, examines the competitive pricing behaviour of airlines. Data is collected by route for cases where more than one airline is in direct competition. Data on fares is obtained from the internet for two airlines with competing services to Alicante, Prague and Malaga, departing from Nottingham East Midlands Airport in the UK, for the six working weeks up to and including the actual departure. These destinations represent leisure traffic. Two domestic business destinations were also selected to illustrate price competition on business demand where departure times were within a maximum of 20 minutes of each other and a further examination of competing services from London Gatwick (LGW) was made. Cross Correlation Analysis is used to examine whether, subject to a variety of lags, the prices offered by one airline can be seen to be both correlated with the other price series and to lead it. This provides some insight into the pricing strategy adopted by the competitors. Autocorrelation Functions (ACFs) and Partial Autocorrelation Functions (PACFs) can also be produced on the prices offered by each airline. These suggest the nature of the ARIMA model that can be fitted to the series and these models can show the degree to which series values are correlated with their own past values and whether a reasonable model could be based on an ARIMA approach. The relative strength of these two relationships is examined; are prices more closely explained by the competitor's actions or the airlines own past price setting?

Suggested Citation

  • David Edward Pitfield, 2004. "Airline Price Competition: A Time Series Analysis of 'Low-Cost' Carriers," ERSA conference papers ersa04p680, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p680
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    File URL: https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa04/PDF/680.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Williams, George, 2001. "Will Europe's charter carriers be replaced by “no-frills†scheduled airlines?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 277-286.
    2. Marco Alderighi & Alessandro Cento & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 2004. "The Entry of Low-Cost Airlines: Price Competition in the European Airline Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-074/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2004. "Airline pricing behaviour in the London–Paris market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 277-281.
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    1. Garrigos-Simon, Fernando J. & Narangajavana, Yeamduan & Gil-Pechuan, Ignacio, 2010. "Seasonality and price behaviour of airlines in the Alicante-London market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 350-354.
    2. Narangajavana, Yeamduan & Garrigos-Simon, Fernando J. & García, Javier Sanchez & Forgas-Coll, Santiago, 2014. "Prices, prices and prices: A study in the airline sector," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-42.
    3. Asadi, Mehrad & Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert, 2023. "The nexus between oil and airline stock returns: Does time frequency matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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