IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wii/bpaper/125.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Transfer and Adjustment Problems in the Balkans

Author

Listed:

Abstract

How to deal with significant external imbalances due to persistent cross-border financial flows which eventually dry out while accumulated foreign debts need to be financed from increased exports? Keynes and Ohlin, primarily, debated an apparently more specific issue of unilateral transfers in the case of German reparations after the World War I and that debate has had lasting influence on the theory of trade and international finance and even on the understanding of the dynamics of exchange rates in financial and fiscal adjustment. These issues have resurfaced in the discussions of financial crisis in a monetary union, like that of the euro area. The aim of this essay is to use the arguments presented in this debate and in subsequent clarifications and extensions to understand the development of external imbalances in the Balkans and the prolonged adjustment in the context of the financial crisis after 2008. The motivation is that this is an important topic in international macroeconomics and a recurrent problem in this region, though I will look more thoroughly only into the last episode of the financial crisis from 2008 onwards. The essay follows the arguments advanced in this classic debate and applies them to examples of post-crisis adjustment in the Balkans (not just in the post-socialist countries, but also looking at the problems that Greece is having with servicing its large foreign debt). The essay should provide the framework for the understanding of Balkan problems of adjustment to outward transfers to service in some cases of unsustainable foreign debts. It also seeks to develop hypotheses that invite a detailed look at the data and their assessment by somewhat more in depth discussion of particular cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Gligorov, 2016. "The Transfer and Adjustment Problems in the Balkans," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 125, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:bpaper:125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/the-transfer-and-adjustment-problems-in-the-balkans-dlp-4074.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Gali­, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2008. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 116-132, September.
    3. Keynes, John Maynard, 1919. "The Economic Consequences of the Peace," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number keynes1919.
    4. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Brecher, Richard A & Hatta, Tatsuo, 1983. "The Generalized Theory of Transfers and Welfare: Bilateral Transfers in a Multilateral World," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 606-618, September.
    5. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    6. Geanakoplos, John & Heal, Geoffrey, 1983. "A geometric explanation of the transfer paradox in a stable economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 223-236.
    7. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    8. Harry G. Johnson, 1956. "The Transfer Problem and Exchange Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 212-212.
    9. Roy J. Ruffin & Ronald W. Jones, 2007. "International Technology Transfer: Who Gains and Who Loses?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 209-222, May.
    10. Srinivasan, T. N. & Bhagwati, Jagdish N., 1984. "On transfer paradoxes and immiserizing growth : Part II," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-3), pages 111-115.
    11. Jones, Ronald W, 1985. "Income Effects and Paradoxes in the Theory of International Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(378), pages 330-344, June.
    12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2013. "Varieties and the transfer problem," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-12.
    13. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    14. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    17. Brakman,Steven & Marrewijk,Charles van, 2009. "The Economics of International Transfers," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521118729, October.
    18. Gale, David, 1974. "Exchange equilibrium and coalitions : An example," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 63-66, March.
    19. Srinivasan, T. N. & Bhagwati, Jagdish N., 1983. "On transfer paradoxes and immiserizing growth: Part I : Comment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 217-222.
    20. ,, 2014. "The transfer problem: A complete characterization," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), May.
    21. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
    22. Lloyd A. Metzler, 1942. "The Transfer Problem Reconsidered," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(3), pages 397-397.
    23. Balasko, Yves, 1978. "The Transfer Problem and the Theory of Regular Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(3), pages 687-694, October.
    24. Ronald W. Jones, 1984. "The Transfer Problem in a Three-Agent Setting," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Catalin Angelo Ioan, 2018. "Analysis of Natural Movement of Romanian Population During 2007-2014 - IV," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(1), pages 243-254, FEBRUARY.
    2. Romeo-Victor Ionescu, 2017. "New Challenges for the Balkan Economies in the Context of the European Union," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(4), pages 39-52, AUGUST.
    3. Victor Ionescu, 2018. "EU Balkan Member States between Economic Periphery and Cohesion. To a New Regional Leader in an EU of Contradictions?," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-34, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demuynck, Thomas & Rock, Bram De & Ginsburgh, Victor, 2016. "The transfer paradox in welfare space," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-4.
    2. Epifani, Paolo & Gancia, Gino, 2017. "Global imbalances revisited: The transfer problem and transport costs in monopolistic competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 99-116.
    3. Sergio Turner, 2006. "How much trade does the transfer paradox require? The threshold computed," Working Papers 2006-02, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Steven Brakman & Charles Van Marrewijk, 2007. "Transfers, Nontraded Goods, and Unemployment: An Analysis of the Keynes-Ohlin Debate," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 121-143, Spring.
    5. Ram Sewak Dubey & Minwook Kang, 2019. "Transfer paradox in a stable equilibrium," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 259-269, December.
    6. Trionfetti, Federico, 2018. "Firm heterogeneity, comparative advantage and the transfer problem," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 246-258.
    7. Kang, Minwook & Ye, Lei Sandy, 2016. "Advantageous redistribution with three smooth CES utility functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 171-180.
    8. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    9. Minwook KANG, 2015. "A Concrete Example of the Transfer Problem with Multiple Equilibria," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1504, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    10. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk & Charles van Marrewijk, 2006. "Agglomeration and Aid," CESifo Working Paper Series 1750, CESifo.
    11. Mihailov, Alexander, 2003. "When and How Much Does a Peg Increase Trade? The Role of Trade Costs and Import Demand Elasticity under Monetary Uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 8866, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    12. Zineddine Alla & Raphael A. Espinoza & Atish R. Ghosh, 2020. "FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1755-1791, October.
    13. Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Aid and trade," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(3), pages 481-507, Autumn.
    14. Brakman, Steven & van Marrewijk, Charles, 1995. "Transfers, returns to scale, tied aid and monopolistic competition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 333-354, August.
    15. Emily T. Cremers, 2008. "Transfers, the Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_018, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    16. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    17. Emily T. Cremers & Partha Sen, 2005. "Transfers and the Terms of Trade in an Overlapping Generations Model," Working papers 138, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    18. Oliver Grimm & Stefan Ried, 2007. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 07/67, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    19. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2000. "A Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods under Nonhomothetic Preferences: Demand Complementarities, Income Distribution, and North-South Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1093-1120, December.
    20. Emily T. Cremers & Partha Sen, 2009. "Transfers, the terms of trade, and capital accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1599-1616, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic imbalances; current account adjustment; debt problems; Greece; Balkans; Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:bpaper:125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Customer service (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.