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Auswirkungen des COVID-19-bedingten Konjunktureinbruchs auf die Emissionen von Treibhausgasen in Österreich. Ergebnisse einer ersten Einschätzung

Author

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  • Mark Sommer

    (WIFO)

  • Franz Sinabell
  • Gerhard Streicher

Abstract

In der vorliegenden Analyse werden die Auswirkungen der Maßnahmen zur Begrenzung der Ausbreitung von COVID-19 auf die Treibhausgasemissionen in Österreich untersucht. Dazu wurde ein neues Modell, ALICE, entwickelt, das die kurz- bis mittelfristigen Auswirkungen von Produktions- und Konsumänderungen im Hinblick auf Wertschöpfung und Emissionen quantifiziert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die direkten Konsequenzen wie auch die Folgewirkungen aufgrund der Verflechtungen der Wirtschaft. Die hier vorgestellte Analyse orientiert sich an der vom WIFO im April 2020 veröffentlichten Prognose, die für 2020 einen Rückgang der realen Bruttowertschöpfung um 5¼% prognostiziert. Demgemäß ist in Österreich ein Rückgang der Treibhausgasemissionen entsprechend der Abgrenzung der Treibhausgasinventur im Jahr 2020 gegenüber 2019 um 7,1% zu erwarten. Ungewissheit über den tatsächlichen Rückgang der Emissionen besteht durch die endgültigen Produktionsauswirkungen und das Verhalten der Haushalte.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Sommer & Franz Sinabell & Gerhard Streicher, 2020. "Auswirkungen des COVID-19-bedingten Konjunktureinbruchs auf die Emissionen von Treibhausgasen in Österreich. Ergebnisse einer ersten Einschätzung," WIFO Working Papers 600, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:600
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franz Sinabell & Mathias Kirchner & Claudia Kettner-Marx, 2018. "Landwirtschaftliche Biomasse und Bioenergie in Österreich. Eine Analyse ihrer volkswirtschaftlichen und umweltpolitischen Bedeutung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61894.
    2. Sommer, Mark & Kratena, Kurt, 2017. "The Carbon Footprint of European Households and Income Distribution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 62-72.
    3. Kirchner, Mathias & Sommer, Mark & Kratena, Kurt & Kletzan-Slamanig, Daniela & Kettner-Marx, Claudia, 2019. "CO2 taxes, equity and the double dividend – Macroeconomic model simulations for Austria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 295-314.
    4. Franz Sinabell & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Matthias Firgo & Klaus Friesenbichler & Philipp Piribauer & Gerhard Streicher & Ludwig Gerner & Mathias Kirchner & Jochen Kantelhardt & Andreas Niedermayr & , 2019. "Eine Zwischenbilanz zu den Wirkungen des Programms der Ländlichen Entwicklung 2014-2020," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61913.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wifo, 2021. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 1/2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(1), January.
    2. Claudia Kettner-Marx & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Angela Köppl & Ina Meyer & Franz Sinabell & Mark Sommer, 2020. "Schlüsselindikatoren zu Klimawandel und Energiewirtschaft 2020. Sonderthema: COVID-19, CO2-Emissionen und Konjunkturpakete als Chance für strukturorientierten Klimaschutz," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(7), pages 539-555, July.
    3. Mark Sommer & Franz Sinabell & Gerhard Streicher, 2021. "Ein Ausblick auf die Treibhausgasemissionen in Österreich 2021 und 2022," WIFO Working Papers 628, WIFO.
    4. Franz Sinabell & Mark Sommer & Gerhard Streicher, 2020. "Abschätzung der Verringerung der Treibhausgasemissionen aufgrund des Konjunktureinbruchs," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(8), pages 599-607, August.
    5. Wifo, 2020. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 7/2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(7), July.
    6. Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Der Beitrag der Konjunkturbelebung zur Transformation. Einordnung von Maßnahmen der Bundesländer," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(1), pages 67-78, January.

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    Keywords

    Treibhausgasemissionen; COVID-19; Input-Output-Modell;
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