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Prognose von "Beyond GDP"-Indikatoren zur Einkommensverteilung

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Ederer
  • Marian Fink
  • Silvia Rocha-Akis
  • Vanessa Lechinger

    (Vienna Chamber of Labour)

Abstract

Das WIFO erweitert seine Konjunkturprognose um zwei Indikatoren zur Einkommensentwicklung: das S80/S20-Einkommensquintilverhältnis und die Armutsgefährdungsquote. Beide sind wichtige Kennzahlen im Rahmen der Agenda 2030 der Vereinten Nationen sowie der "Beyond GDP"-Initiative der Europäischen Kommission, die einen breiteren Ansatz zur Messung von Wohlstand und Wohlergehen darstellen. Die beiden Indikatoren werden auf der Grundlage der EU-SILC-Daten mit Hilfe von EUROMOD berechnet. Wichtige Inputfaktoren sind dabei die Bevölkerungsprognose und die Haushaltsprognose von Statistik Austria sowie die Entwicklung von Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit, Lohneinkommen und Inflation basierend auf der jeweiligen WIFO-Konjunkturprognose. Da EU-SILC erst mit Verzögerung zur Verfügung steht, werden die beiden Indikatoren auch für vergangene Jahre geschätzt (Nowcast). Die Prognose für die Jahre 2024 und 2025 (Forecast) zeigt, dass die Indikatoren relativ stabil sind und innerhalb der üblichen Schwankungsbreiten liegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Ederer & Marian Fink & Silvia Rocha-Akis & Vanessa Lechinger, 2024. "Prognose von "Beyond GDP"-Indikatoren zur Einkommensverteilung," WIFO Research Briefs 5, WIFO.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2024:i:5
    Note: With English abstract.
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    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/71465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. COADY David & DE POLI Silvia & HERNÁNDEZ Adrián & PAPINI Andrea & TUMINO Alberto, 2023. "The Extent and Composition of Automatic Stabilization in EU Countries," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2023-01, Joint Research Centre.
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