The Cyclicality of IFC Investments : To Be, or Not to Be, Procyclical

This paper presents empirical evidence on the cyclicality of investments made by the International Finance Corporation over the past 20 years and explores their implications for the International Finance Corporation’s investment strategy in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. An Independent Evaluation Group report on World Bank Group operations during the global financial crisis found that the International Finance Corporation’s role was “neutral to procyclical,” as it “did not increase investments in response to the crisis.” This study provides a more detailed assessment of the cyclical patterns of International Finance Corporation investment activity by using a longer time horizon of assessment rather than a specific point-in-time-episode, differentiating original commitments from disbursements, and disaggregating investments across regions and industries. The results of the study confirm that International Finance Corporation investment activity was overall procyclical during 2000–19, but this general pattern masks differences over time and across regions and industries. The paper also examines the relation between the cyclical patterns of International Finance Corporation investment activity and its financial performance. The results suggest that the procyclicality is linked with sounder asset quality (measured by nonperforming loan ratios) and higher profitability (measured by risk-adjusted return on capital), underscoring that prudent portfolio risk management and profit seeking strategies have coexisted with International Finance Corporation investment procyclicality. The procyclicality of International Finance Corporation operations is consistent with its institutional mandate of supporting private sector investment, which is usually procyclical, and the need to maintain an AAA credit rating. Nevertheless, the facts that commitments became less procyclical after the 2008 crisis and the cyclicality of investments varies across regions and industries suggest that there is scope for easing procyclicality without jeopardizing the International Finance Corporation’s financial sustainability. In this context, the International Finance Corporation’s COVID-19 Fast-Track Facility is a case in point for easing investment procyclicality. Moreover, from a medium-term perspective, a less procyclical investment strategy may be more in line with the International Finance Corporation’s 3.0 and Upstream initiatives, which aim at building pipelines of sound projects and prioritizing returns through long-term risk premia and, hence, are undeterred by short-term cyclical volatility.