IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6777.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Domestic public debt in low-income countries : trends and structure

Author

Listed:
  • Bua, Giovanna
  • Pradelli, Juan
  • Presbitero, Andrea F.

Abstract

This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Bua, Giovanna & Pradelli, Juan & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Domestic public debt in low-income countries : trends and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6777, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6777
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/02/12/000158349_20140212091355/Rendered/PDF/WPS6777.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Andrew D. Crockett, 1999. "General discussion : exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 411-422.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," IMF Working Papers 2003/177, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ms. Anastasia Guscina, 2008. "Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/205, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033348, April.
    7. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    8. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    11. Mehl, Arnaud & Reynaud, Julien, 2005. "The determinants of "domestic" original sin in emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 560, European Central Bank.
    12. Hanson, James A., 2007. "The growth in government domestic debt : changing burdens and risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4348, The World Bank.
    13. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
    14. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 2005/057, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Aaron Mehrotra & Ken Miyajima & Agustin Villar, 2012. "Developments of domestic government bond markets in EMEs and their implications," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 31-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 2010/245, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67.
    18. S M Ali Abbas & Jakob E Christensen, 2010. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 209-255, April.
    19. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Alessandro Missale, 2015. "Multilateral indexed loans and debt sustainability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(3-4), pages 305-329.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    2. Florence Dafe & Dennis Essers & Ulrich Volz, 2018. "Localising sovereign debt: The rise of local currency bond markets in sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3317-3344, December.
    3. Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea, 2019. "Determinants of the Public Debt and the Role of the Natural Resources: a Cross-Country Analysis," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 285026, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Walid Benayed & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2020. "Domestic public debt and financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is there an inverted-U relationship?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 846-854.
    5. Bayar, Yilmaz & Sakar, Emre, 2021. "Impact of Domestic Public Borrowing on Financial Development: Evidence from EU Transition Economies," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(1).
    6. Leno S Rocha & Frederico S A Rocha & Thársis T P Souza, 2017. "Is the public sector of your country a diffusion borrower? Empirical evidence from Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, October.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    9. Roel Dom & Lionel Roger, 2018. "Economic sanctions and domestic debt: Burundi's fiscal response to the suspension of budget support," Discussion Papers 2018-12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    10. Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2019. "Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 157-179, May.
    11. Leno S. Rocha & Frederico S. A. Rocha & Th'arsis T. P. Souza, 2016. "Is the public sector of your country a diffusion borrower? Empirical evidence from Brazil," Papers 1604.07782, arXiv.org.
    12. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    13. Biagio Bossone, 2022. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for the Public Finances of Globalized Economies: Theory, Policy Implications, and Keynesian Reflections," Working Papers PKWP2202, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. S.M. Ali Abbas & Raphael Espinoza, 2016. "Why Do Banks in Developing Countries Hold Government Securities?," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 2016-1, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    15. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    16. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    17. Mubariz Mammadli & Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada & Andrea Gatto & Rana Huseynova, 2021. "What Drives Public Debt Growth? A Focus on Natural Resources, Sustainability and Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 614-621.
    18. Bossone, Biagio, 2024. "A Modigliani-Miller theorem for the public finances of globalized economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    19. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kathrin Berensmann & Florence Dafe & Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Developing local currency bond markets for long-term development financing in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(3-4), pages 350-378.
    21. Agnieszka Kozera & Aldona Standar & Łukasz Satoła, 2020. "Managing Rural Areas in the Context of the Growing Debt of Polish Local Government Units," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, August.
    22. Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia, 2022. "Interest Rate Shocks and the Composition of Sovereign Debt," TSE Working Papers 22-1379, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    23. Toriola, Anu Keshiro & Salami, Lateef Abiodun & Oke-Bello, Adesina Mukaila & Joseph, Gloria Oluwapelumi, 2024. "Effect of Rising Public Debt on Growth of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Sectors in Nigeria," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 12(1), January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    2. Fløgstad, Cathrin, 2017. "Domestic bond markets in emerging economies: Crowding in or crowding out?," Working Papers in Economics 15/17, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    3. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    4. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    5. Kenza Benhima, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Liability Dollarization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 501-529, July.
    6. Nelson Derrick Nguepi & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Irina Bilan, 2024. "Foreign or Domestic Public Debt for Cameroon’s Development? An Externality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-27, August.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    13. Hausmann Ricardo & Panizza Ugo, 2011. "Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter Cyclical Policies in the New Millennium," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-35, August.
    14. Sergio Rebelo & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2018. "Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 25031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    16. Ms. Anastasia Guscina, 2008. "Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/205, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    18. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    19. Bengui, Julien & Nguyen, Ha, 2016. "Consumption baskets and currency choice in international borrowing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 287-304.
    20. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Mosab I. Tabash & Olatunde Julius Omokanmi & Rotimi Ayoade Ogunjumo & Matthew Oyeleke Ojelade & James A. Ishola, 2022. "Macroeconomic implications of escalating stock of public debt: Evidence from sub‐Saharan African economies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 527-540, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Markets; External Debt; Emerging Markets; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress; Banks&Banking Reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6777. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.