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International poverty projections

Author

Listed:
  • Anand, Sudhir
  • Kanbur, S. M. Ravi

Abstract

The authors investigate the methodology used in projections of international poverty - particularly those used in many World Bank documents. The methodology, as developed by Ahluwalia, Carter, and Chenery (1979) in an influential paper, is examined critically and subjected to sensitivity analysis. It was found that their projections of poverty are not robust to reasonable changes and improvements in the methodology; in some cases, even the projections'time trend is reversed. Thus, analysts and policymakers should treat such global forecasts of poverty with caution.

Suggested Citation

  • Anand, Sudhir & Kanbur, S. M. Ravi, 1991. "International poverty projections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 617, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:617
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahluwalia, Montek S. & Carter, Nicholas G. & Chenery, Hollis B., 1979. "Growth and poverty in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 299-341, August.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. Ahluwalia, Montek S., 1976. "Inequality, poverty and development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-342, December.
    4. Sen, Amartya K, 1976. "Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 219-231, March.
    5. Sudhir Anand, 1977. "Aspects Of Poverty In Malaysia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Anand, Sudhir & Kanbur, S. M. R., 1993. "The Kuznets process and the inequality--development relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 25-52, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjay G. Reddy, 2009. "The Emperor’s New Suit: Global Poverty Estimates Reappraised," Working Papers 79, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    2. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
    3. Paweł Kumor, 2010. "Zależność nierówności plac od poziomu rozwoju gospodarczego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 45-62.
    4. Birdsall, Nancy & Lustig, Nora & Meyer, Christian J., 2014. "The Strugglers: The New Poor in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 132-146.

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