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World oil price and biofuels : a general equilibrium analysis

Author

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  • Timilsina, Govinda R.
  • Mevel, Simon
  • Shrestha, Ashish

Abstract

The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4 percent in 2020 from 2.4 percent in 2009. A doubling of oil price in 2020 from its baseline level, or a 230 percent increase from the 2009 level, would increase the global biofuel penetration in 2020 to 12.6 percent. The penetration of biofuels is highly sensitive to the substitution possibility between biofuels and their fossil fuel counterparts. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through diversion of food commodities and cropland toward the production of biofuels.

Suggested Citation

  • Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon & Shrestha, Ashish, 2011. "World oil price and biofuels : a general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5673, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Château, 2008. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 653, OECD Publishing.
    2. van der Werf, Edwin, 2008. "Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2964-2979, November.
    3. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    2. Mokni, Khaled & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2020. "Asymmetric causality in quantiles analysis of the oil-food ‏ ‏nexus since the 1960s," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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    Keywords

    Energy Production and Transportation; Climate Change Economics; Markets and Market Access; Renewable Energy; Food&Beverage Industry;
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