IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3833.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round

Author

Listed:
  • Bussolo, Maurizio
  • Lay, Jann
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Abstract

Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals'labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

Suggested Citation

  • Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3833, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3833
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2006/01/26/000016406_20060126161826/Rendered/PDF/wps3833.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
    2. Fran??ois Bourguignon & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2002. "Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 516, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Verner, Dorte, 2004. "Making the poor count takes more than counting the poor : A quick poverty assessment of the state of Bahia, Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3216, The World Bank.
    4. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Maurizio Bussolo & Jann Lay, 2003. "Globalisation and Poverty Changes in Colombia," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
    6. repec:zbw:ifwkie:3715 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2003. "Measuring pro-poor growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 93-99, January.
    8. Kappel, Robert & Lay, Jann & Steiner, Susan, 2005. "Uganda: No more pro-poor growth?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3504, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Christopher B. Barrett, 2005. "Rural poverty dynamics: development policy implications," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 45-60, January.
    10. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Lanjouw, Peter & Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, 2003. "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil Using Multiple Data Sources," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(1), January.
    11. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1803-1815, November.
    13. Anne‐Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Reconciling Household Surveys and National Accounts Data Using a Cross Entropy Estimation Method," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(3), pages 395-406, September.
    14. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
    15. World Bank, 2003. "Brazil : Inequality and Economic Development, Volume 1. Policy Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 14653, The World Bank Group.
    16. World Bank, 2001. "World Development Report 2000/2001," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11856.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bussolo, Maurizio & Niimi, Yoko, 2009. "Do Regional Trade Pacts Benefit the Poor? An Illustration from Dominican Republic--Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 146-160, January.
    2. Bussolo, Maurizio & Maliszewska, Maryla & Murard, Elie, 2014. "The long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America is finally happening," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6912, The World Bank.
    3. Tapias, J., 2021. "Temporary employment, informality, poverty and inequality," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 20047, Alianza EFI.
    4. Julien Lefevre, 2018. "Modeling the Socioeconomic Impacts of the Adoption of a Carbon Pricing Instrument – Literature review," CIRED Working Papers hal-03128619, HAL.
    5. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
    6. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    7. Bosello, Francesco & Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Rosa, Renato, 2010. "REDD in the Carbon Market: A general equilibrium analysis," Conference papers 331978, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions," Conference papers 331764, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Rafael E. de Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2011. "Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 387-402, August.
    11. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    12. Nadia Belhaj Hassine & Veronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2010. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization, Productivity Gain and Poverty Alleviation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 519, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2010.
    13. Jann Lay, 2010. "Sequential macro-micro modelling with behavioural microsimulations," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 24-34.
    14. Unknown, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 180-180, June.
    15. Nicolas Hérault, 2010. "Sequential linking of Computable General Equilibrium and microsimulation models: a comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 35-42.
    16. McDonald, Scott. & Jansen, Marion. & Uexküll, Erik von., 2012. "The impact of crisis-related changes in trade flows on employment, incomes, regional and sectoral development in Brazil," ILO Working Papers 994689023402676, International Labour Organization.
    17. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4733, The World Bank.
    18. repec:ilo:ilowps:468902 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karingi, Stephen & Lang, Rémi & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Sadni, Mustapha & Hammouda, Hakim Ben, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," Conference papers 331389, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Nanak Kakwani & Marcelo Neri & Hyun H. Son, 2006. "Linkages between Pro-Poor Growth, Social Programmes and Labour Market: The Recent Brazilian Experience," Working Papers 26, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    3. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0512, CIRPEE.
    4. Facundo Alvaredo & Leonardo Gasparini, 2013. "Recent Trends in Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0151, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. Almas Heshmati, 2006. "Conditional and unconditional inequality and growth relationships," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(14), pages 925-931.
    6. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    7. Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Benin, Samuel & Fan, Shenggen, 2012. "Strategies and priorities for African agriculture: Economywide perspectives from country studies," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number Xinshen Diao.
    8. Wong, Sara & Argüello, Ricardo, 2010. "Fiscal policies and increased trade openness: poverty impacts in Ecuador," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2585, May.
    9. Kappel, Robert & Lay, Jann & Steiner, Susan, 2005. "Uganda: No more pro-poor growth?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3504, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Leite, Phillippe G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "Poverty reduction without economic growth?: Explaining Brazil's poverty dynamics, 1985-2004," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 20-36, September.
    11. Cagé, Julia, 2009. "Growth, Poverty Reduction and Governance in Developing Countries: a Survey," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 0904, CEPREMAP.
    12. Rolf Maier, 2005. "Trade Policy and Pro-Poor Growth," International Trade 0504007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:zbw:ifwkie:3715 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kappel, Robert & Lay, Jann & Steiner, Susan, 2004. "The Missing Links - Uganda's Economic Reforms and Pro-Poor Growth," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3840, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Janz, Teresa & Augsburg, Britta & Gassmann, Franziska & Nimeh, Zina, 2023. "Leaving no one behind: Urban poverty traps in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    16. Kebede, Sindu & Fekadu, Belay & Aredo, Dejene, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: A Macro-Micro Analysis in Ethiopia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 44, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    17. Miet Maertens & Liesbeth Colen & Johan F. M. Swinnen, 2011. "Globalisation and poverty in Senegal: a worst case scenario?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 38(1), pages 31-54, March.
    18. Klasen, Stephan & Reimers, Malte, 2017. "Looking at Pro-Poor Growth from an Agricultural Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 147-168.
    19. Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2007. "Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso: A Reassessment of the Paradox," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(1), pages 70-101, January.
    20. Higgins, Sean & Lustig, Nora, 2016. "Can a poverty-reducing and progressive tax and transfer system hurt the poor?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 63-75.
    21. Thorat, Sukhadeo, 2011. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty Linkages during 1983-2005: Implications for Socially Inclusive Growth," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Labor Markets; Rural Poverty Reduction; Achieving Shared Growth; Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.