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Projecting mortality for all countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bulatao, Rodolfo A.
  • Bos, Eduard
  • Stephens, Patience W.
  • My T. Vu

Abstract

This report is an attempt to develop a method for projecting mortality trends in all countries into the future, both over the short term (for one or two decades) and over the long term (for one or two centuries). Two indicators are the focus of this exercise: life expectancy at birth and the infant mortality rate. The projection of the age pattern of mortality is considered but no empirical analysis performed. In the introduction, the reasons for focusing on life expectancy and infant mortality is discussed and a preview of the major issues is provided. Then previous projection approaches are briefly summarized. Analysis is then presented separately for life expectancy and infant mortality, covering appropriate representations of universal time trends and country-specific trends and how they might be predicted. Finally, illustrative projections are used to show the effects of the derived procedures, and some conclusions are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & My T. Vu, 1989. "Projecting mortality for all countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 337, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:337
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T., 1989. "Asia region population projections : 1989-90 edition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 331, The World Bank.
    2. Lee, Ronald & Rofman, Rafael, 1994. "Modelación y proyección de la mortalidad en Chile," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), June.
    3. Stephens, Patience W. & Bos, Eduard & Vu, My T. & Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1991. "Africa region population projections : 1990-91," Policy Research Working Paper Series 598, The World Bank.
    4. Dalkhat M. Ediev, 2009. "Extrapolative Projections of Mortality: Towards a More Consistent Method," VID Working Papers 0803, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T. & Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1991. "Europe, Middle East, and North Africa region population projections : 1990-91," Policy Research Working Paper Series 601, The World Bank.
    6. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T., 1989. "Africa region population projections : 1989-90 edition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 330, The World Bank.
    7. Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo, 1990. "Projecting fertility for all countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 500, The World Bank.
    8. -, 1994. "Notas de Población Vol.22 N° 59," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), June.
    9. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T., 1989. "Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region population projections : 1989-90 edition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 329, The World Bank.
    10. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Stephens, Patience W., 1992. "Global estimates and projections of mortality by cause, 1970-2015," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1007, The World Bank.

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