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Air pollution and mortality : results from Santiago, Chile

Author

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  • Ostr, Bart
  • Sanchez, Jose Miguel
  • Aranda, Carlos
  • Eskeland, Gunnar S.

Abstract

Heavy outdoor pollution is found in developing country cities such as Jakarta, Katowice, Mexico City, and Santiago. But most epidemiological studies of dose-response relationships between particulate air pollution (PM10) and premature deaths are from Western industrial nations. This study of such relationships in developing countries by the authors fills an important gap. It is also one of the few based on monitored PM10 values, or small particles, which is likely to be a more relevant measure of exposure to air pollution than the more traditional measure of total suspended particulates. Over several years, daily measures of ambient PM10 were collected in Santiago. Data were collected for all deaths, as well as for deaths for all men, all women, and all people over 64. Deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular disease were recorded separately, and accidental deaths were excluded. Multiple regression analysis was used to explain mortality, with particular attention to the influence of season and temperature. The association persists after controlling for daily minimum temperature and binary variables indicating temperature extremes the day of the week, the month, and the year. Additional sensitivity analysis suggests robust relationships. A change equal to 10-microgram-per-cubic-meter in daily PM10 (about 9 percent) averaged over three days was associatedwith a 1.1 percent increase in mortality (95 percent confidence interval: 0.6 to 1.5 percent). Death from respiratory and cardiovascular disease was more responsive to changes in PM10 than total mortality was. The same holds for mortality among men and mortality among individuals older than 64. The results are surprising consistent with results from industrial countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ostr, Bart & Sanchez, Jose Miguel & Aranda, Carlos & Eskeland, Gunnar S., 1995. "Air pollution and mortality : results from Santiago, Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1453, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sabit Cakmak & Richard T. Burnett & Daniel Krewski, 1999. "Methods for Detecting and Estimating Population Threshold Concentrations for Air Pollution‐Related Mortality with Exposure Measurement Error," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 487-496, June.
    2. Narayan Sastry, 2002. "Forest fires, air pollution, and mortality in Southeast Asia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Bowland, Bradley J. & Beghin, John C., 2001. "Robust estimates of value of a statistical life for developing economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 385-396, May.
    4. Mariana Conte Grand & Fabián Gaioli & Elizabeth Perone & Anna Sorensson & Tomas Svensson & Pablo Tarela, 2002. "Impacts of Greenhouse and Local Gases Mitigation Options on Air Pollution in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area: Valuation of Human Health Effects," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 230, Universidad del CEMA.
    5. Cropper, Maureen L. & Simon, Nathalie B. & Alberini, Anna & Sharma, P. K., 1997. "The health effects of air pollution in Delhi, India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1860, The World Bank.
    6. Jorge Rogat, 2007. "The Politics of Fuel Pricing in Latin America and Their Implications for the Environment," Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Stephanie K. Gower & Stephen McColl, 2005. "Development of the PEARLS Model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup) and Use of Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Internal Exposure to PM2.5 in Toronto," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 301-315, April.
    8. Aygul Ozbafli & Chun-Yan Kuo & Glenn Jenkins, 2007. "Cost-benefit Analysis Case Study On Regulations To Lower The Level Of Sulphur In Gasoline," Working Paper 1134, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    9. Maddison, David, 2006. "Dose response functions and the harvesting effect," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 313-332, November.
    10. Cesar, Herman & Borja-Aburto, Victor H. & Dorland, Kees & Munoz Cruz, Roberto & Brander, Luke & Cropper, Maureen & Gonzalez Marinez, Ana Citlalic & Olaiz-Fernandez, Gustavo & Martinez Bolivar, Ana Pat, 2002. "Improving air quality in metropolitan Mexico City : an economic valuation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2785, The World Bank.
    11. Larson, Bruce A. & Avaliani, Simon & Golub, Alexander & Rosen, Sydney & Shaposhnikov, Dmitry & Strukova, Elena & Vincent, Jeffrey R. & Wolff, Scott K., 1999. "The Economics of Air Pollution Health Risks in Russia: A Case Study of Volgograd," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1803-1819, October.
    12. Michelle Bell & Jonathan Samet & Francesca Dominici, 2004. "Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)," Johns Hopkins University Dept. of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1057, Berkeley Electronic Press.
    13. Cifuentes, Luis A. & Jorquera, Héctor & Rizzi, Luis & Vergara, Javier, 2004. "Economic and Environmental Valuation Applied to Air Quality Management and Pollution Control Cases," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4484, Inter-American Development Bank.

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