IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1283.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest rates in open economies : real interest rate parity, exchange rates, and country risk in industrial and developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Das Gupta, Dipak
  • Das Gupta, Bejoy
  • DEC

Abstract

The paper tests for the relative importance of international capital market integration in determining interest rates in a broad sample of both industrial and developing countries. The recent turbulence in industrial country financial markets has underscored these concerns. One view holds that it is possible for countries to conduct an independent domestic interest rate policy. The other suggests that there is very little room for managing interest rates in open economies without destabilizing effects on exchange rates - given the massive volumes of capital market transactions that force interest rate parity across countries. Interest rate formation in developing countries has attracted much less attention. But it is an increasingly important issue as a growing number of them undertake financial liberalization. The central question for policy-makers is again the degree to which domestic interest rates are influenced by world interest rates. A separate concern is high domestic interest rates, relative to world interest rates, in some developing countries. A model of real interest rate parity is proposed as the main test for capital market integration - that is, that nominal interest rate differences across countries are largely explained by inflation differentials (rather than uncovered or covered nominal interest parity). The evidence suggests strongly that although domestic monetary policies play a significant role, real interest parity is a dominant factor, in both industrial and developing countries. However, expectations of exchange rate changes also significantly influence interest rates. A third key factor is the apparent presence of significant"country risk", unexplained by macroeconomic imbalances, for some developing countries (for example, Chile, Indonesia, Mexico, and the Philippines) pushing real domestic interest rates higher than what would be otherwise predicted. The concluding section discusses the possible reasons for such"country-risk"in the case of Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Das Gupta, Dipak & Das Gupta, Bejoy & DEC, 1994. "Interest rates in open economies : real interest rate parity, exchange rates, and country risk in industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1283, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1283
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1994/04/01/000009265_3961006062911/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ahmed, Sadiq & Kapur, Basant K., 1990. "How Indonesia's monetary policy affects key variables," Policy Research Working Paper Series 349, The World Bank.
    3. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    5. José Saúl Lizondo, 1983. "Interest Differential and Covered Arbitrage," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 221-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 555-575, September.
    2. José Saúl Lizondo, 1983. "Interest Differential and Covered Arbitrage," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 221-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "Financial integration: some evidence from Australia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 959-966.
    4. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    6. De Paoli, Bianca & Küçük-Tuger, Hande & Søndergaard, Jens, 2010. "Monetary policy rules and foreign currency positions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121699, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Flandreau, Marc & Komlos, John, 2006. "Target zones in theory and history: Credibility, efficiency, and policy autonomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1979-1995, November.
    8. Mongi Arfaoui & Aymen Ben Rejeb, 2017. "Oil, gold, US dollar and stock market interdependencies: a global analytical insight," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 278-293, October.
    9. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
    10. Philippe Callier, 1981. "Covered arbitrage margin and transaction costs," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(2), pages 262-275, June.
    11. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    12. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-680, May.
    13. Crowder, William J., 1995. "Covered interest parity and international capital market efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-132.
    14. Falk Bräuning & Kovid Puria, 2017. "Uncovering covered interest parity: the role of bank regulation and monetary policy," Current Policy Perspectives 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. McBrady, Matthew R. & Schill, Michael J., 2007. "Foreign currency-denominated borrowing in the absence of operating incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 145-177, October.
    16. Sin-Yu Ho & N.M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1451265-145, January.
    17. Eyzaguirre, Nicolás, 1987. "Impacto de shocks macroeconómicos sobre la situación financiera en las empresas," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 35844, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Bruce Felmingham & SuSan Leong, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90‐ and 180‐day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
    19. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2016. "Why does the Euro fail? The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 543-554.
    20. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.