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Local Labor Market Dynamics and Export Shocks: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Góes,Carlos
  • Segnana,Juan
  • Robertson,Raymond
  • Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C.

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic effects of export exposure on local labor markets in Indonesia, that is, how an increase in exports affects a range of labor market indicators over time. The paper develops an empirical strategy to instrument exposure to foreign demand shocks and validates it by showing that labor market responses are consistent with what a quantitative spatial model would predict after demand shocks. The results show that employment, labor force, real wages, and real wage bills increase more in districts that are more exposed to foreign demand shocks—that is, where exports increase more—relative to the least exposed regions. Extending the analysis over multiple response horizons shows that these shocks persist six years after the foreign demand shock. Lastly, employment responses are stronger among skilled workers relative to unskilled workers and in the formal sector relative to the informal sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Góes,Carlos & Segnana,Juan & Robertson,Raymond & Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C., 2024. "Local Labor Market Dynamics and Export Shocks: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10829, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10829
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amiti, Mary & Cameron, Lisa, 2012. "Trade Liberalization and the Wage Skill Premium: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 277-287.
    2. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
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    4. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, 2020. "Regional data in macroeconomics: Some advice for practitioners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    6. Bezerra De Goes,Carlos Andre & Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C. & Robertson,Raymond, 2023. "Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10518, The World Bank.
    7. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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