IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10465.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade and Civil Conflicts

Author

Listed:
  • Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed,Hoda

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of civil conflicts on international trade. First, it quantifieshow much civil conflicts suppress trade and explores theunderlying mechanisms within a structural gravity model. Trade openness can lower the risk of civil conflicts becauseexpected gains from international trade could discourage both governments and rebels from igniting conflicts(deterrence mechanism). Alternatively, international trade could act as a substitute for internal trade, lowering theopportunity cost of civil conflicts (insurance mechanism). This paper empirically investigates both mechanisms. Second,the paper investigates the spillovers of civil conflicts on trade for neighboring countries uninvolved in the conflict.Third, it examines if the impact of civil conflicts is contemporaneous or persistent through time. The paper usesdata on violent civil conflicts and international and intra-national trade data from 142 countries to estimate astructural gravity trade model for 1989-2006. The results show that civil conflicts in a country can reduce its tradewith other countries by over 40 percent. Spillovers of neighboring civil conflicts are also highly detrimental.Finally, the impact of civil conflicts is highly persistent through time and increases with the duration of the conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed,Hoda, 2023. "Trade and Civil Conflicts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10465, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099905205312330455/pdf/IDU0a32a89fd05022044600a8730ad25dcba77eb.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ades, Alberto & Chua, Hak B, 1997. "Thy Neighbor's Curse: Regional Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 279-304, September.
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10149 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 541-550, 04-05.
    4. Álvarez, Inmaculada C. & Barbero, Javier & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Zofío, José L., 2018. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for Trade? Institutional Conditions in a Sectoral Trade Framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 72-87.
    5. Cosimo Beverelli & Alexander Keck & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Institutions, Trade and Development: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6920, CESifo.
    6. Alessandra Cassar & Pauline Grosjean & Sam Whitt, 2011. "Social Cooperation and the Problem of the Conflict Gap: Survey and Experimental Evidence from Post-War Tajikistan," Discussion Papers 2011-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    7. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    8. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    9. De Sousa, José & Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "Terror networks and trade: Does the neighbor hurt?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 27-56.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/10149 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    12. Yu, Shu & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd & de Haan, Jakob, 2015. "Trade, trust and the rule of law," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 102-115.
    13. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Make Trade Not War?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 865-900.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10149 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10149 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    17. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    18. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    19. repec:hal:journl:hal-04328093 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Callen, Mike & Isaqzadeh, Mohammad & Long, James D. & Sprenger, Charles, 2014. "Violence and risk preference: experimental evidence from Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Michael Callen & Mohammad Isaqzadeh & James D. Long & Charles Sprenger, 2014. "Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 123-148, January.
    22. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    23. Robert C. Feenstra, 2015. "Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10615.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    2. Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "The Variation of Gravity within Countries (or 15 Reasons Why Gravity Should Be Estimated with Domestic Trade Flows)," CESifo Working Paper Series 9057, CESifo.
    3. Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto & Suárez-Varela, Marta, 2022. "Do countries with higher institutional quality transition to cleaner trade?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    5. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia & Petros G. Sekeris, 2014. "US Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 863-885, November.
    6. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    7. Laurent Didier, 2020. "The Impact of Conflict on Trade in Services: A Sector-Level Analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(1), pages 34-48, March.
    8. Esmat Mostafa Kamel, 2021. "The MENA region's need for more democracy and less bureaucracy: A gravity model controlling for aspects of governance and trade freedom in MENA," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1885-1912, June.
    9. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    10. Vincent Vicard, 2009. "On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 167-187, July.
    11. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? On the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264095, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    13. Liu, Ke & Fu, Qiang & Ma, Qing & Ren, Xiang, 2024. "Does geopolitical risk affect exports? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1558-1569.
    14. De Sousa, José & Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "Terror networks and trade: Does the neighbor hurt?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 27-56.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Kamin, Katrin, 2022. "Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity: The impact of conflict on trade revisited," Kiel Working Papers 2222, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Suadat Hussain Wani & Effat Yasmin, 2023. "India’s trade with South and Central Asia: an application of institution-based augmented gravity model," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Yaying Liu & Jin Chen & Churen Sun, 2022. "Partnership Diplomacy and China’s Exports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    21. Massimiliano Calì & Wissam Harake & Fadi Hassan & Clemens Struck, 2015. "The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade," World Bank Publications - Reports 21914, The World Bank Group.
    22. Beverelli, Cosimo & Keck, Alexander & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2018. "Institutions, Trade and Development: A Quantitative Analysis," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    23. Gunes Gokmen, 2012. "Economic Clash? The Role of Cultural Cleavages in Bilateral Trade Relations," EcoMod2012 4252, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.