IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Arshad,Selvia
  • Beyer,Robert Carl Michael

Abstract

This paper investigates whether electricity consumption is a useful indicator for trackingeconomic fluctuations in Bangladesh. It presents monthly data on national electricity consumption since 1993 anddaily consumption data since February 2010 for the country’s eight divisions. National electricity consumption isstrongly correlated with other high-frequency indicators of economic activity, and it has declined during naturaldisasters and the COVID-19 lockdowns. The paper estimates an electricity consumption model that explains over 90 percentof the variation in daily consumption based on the trend, seasonality, within-week variation, holidays, Ramadan, andtemperature. Deviations from the model prediction can act as in indicator of economic fluctuations. For example, duringthe first COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020, electricity consumption in Dhaka fell over 40 percent compared withnormal and remained below the normal level until early 2021. The later lockdowns, in contrast, had only small additionalimpacts, in line with less stringent containment measures and more effective adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arshad,Selvia & Beyer,Robert Carl Michael, 2022. "Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10002, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099239404072234329/pdf/IDU02a02a0540a4e3044450946b009fbff8f4528.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Golam Ahamad, Mazbahul & Nazrul Islam, A.K.M., 2011. "Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6145-6150, October.
    2. Hasan, Syed Abul & Mozumder, Pallab, 2017. "Income and energy use in Bangladesh: A household level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 115-126.
    3. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    4. Mozumder, Pallab & Marathe, Achla, 2007. "Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 395-402, January.
    5. Ai, Hongshan & Zhong, Tenglong & Zhou, Zhengqing, 2022. "The real economic costs of COVID-19: Insights from electricity consumption data in Hunan Province, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Galdo, Virgilio, 2021. "Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. ASGHAR, Zahid, 2008. "Energy–Gdp Relationship: A Causal Analysis For The Five Countries Of South Asia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 167-180.
    8. Jahangir Alam, Mohammad & Ara Begum, Ismat & Buysse, Jeroen & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2012. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 217-225.
    9. Yıldırım, Ertugrul & Sukruoglu, Deniz & Aslan, Alper, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rahaman, Mohammad Mijanur & Islam, Md. Monirul & Polbitsyn, Sergei Nikolaevich & Abbas, Shujaat, 2024. "The electrification-social development nexus in Bangladesh: Do governmental policies matter?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arshad, Selvia & Beyer, Robert C.M., 2023. "Tracking economic fluctuations with electricity consumption in Bangladesh," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Anupam Das & Adian McFarlane & Luc Carels, 2021. "Empirical exploration of remittances and renewable energy consumption in Bangladesh," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 65-89, February.
    4. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Imran, Kashif, 2014. "Industrialization, electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 575-586.
    6. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    7. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Ahmed, Mumtaz & Begum, Ismat Ara, 2017. "Nexus between non-renewable energy demand and economic growth in Bangladesh: Application of Maximum Entropy Bootstrap approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 399-406.
    8. Yıldırım, Ertugrul & Sukruoglu, Deniz & Aslan, Alper, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-21.
    9. Sun, Sizhong & Anwar, Sajid, 2015. "Electricity consumption, industrial production, and entrepreneurship in Singapore," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-78.
    10. Anupam Das & Adian McFarlane, 2020. "Remittances and disaggregated energy consumption in Bangladesh," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 251-268, June.
    11. Mesbah Fathy SHARAF, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Egypt: A disaggregated causality analysis with structural breaks," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 46, pages 59-76.
    12. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Neves, Sónia Almeida, 2018. "Ordinary and Special Regimes of electricity generation in Spain: How they interact with economic activity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1226-1240.
    13. Shakoor Ahmed & Khorshed Alam & Afzalur Rashid & Jeff Gow, 2020. "Militarisation, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Myanmar," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 615-641, August.
    14. Abu Hasan & Anita Zaman & Zohirul Islam Sikder & Abdul Wadud, 2018. "The Dynamics of Electricity Consumption, Energy Use and GDP in Bangladesh," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(68), pages 40-53, June.
    15. Mowshumi Sharmin, 2021. "Relationship of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Utilization with CO2 Emission of Bangladesh," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 49-59, June.
    16. Al-Mulali, Usama & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Are energy conservation policies effective without harming economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 639-650.
    17. Islam, K.M. Nazmul, 2018. "Municipal solid waste to energy generation: An approach for enhancing climate co-benefits in the urban areas of Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2472-2486.
    18. Zhang, Jinjun & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Akram, Sabahat & Alvarado, Rafael & Almulhim, Abdulaziz I., 2022. "Another perspective towards energy consumption factors in Pakistan: Fresh policy insights from novel methodological framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    19. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    20. Stephan B. Bruns & Christian Gross & David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(4), pages 101-134, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.