IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wboper/28443.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Morano
  • Carlos A. Vegh
  • Diego Friedheim
  • Diego Rojas

Abstract

After a growth slowdown that lasted six years (including a contraction of 1.3 percent last year), the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region is finally expected to resume positive growth in 2017, with market analysts forecasting real GDP growth of 1.2 percent for 2017 and 2.3 percent for 2018. The recovery, particularly in South America, will be led by a strong rebound in Argentina, which is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, and Brazil, which is expected to resume positive growth as well, expanding by 0.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 in 2018, after contracting for two consecutive years. The usual external drivers of growth (particularly commodity prices, and growth in China and U.S.) are expected to remain relatively neutral, which points to the need for the region to reinforce its own sources of growth (e.g., structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and further international trade both within and outside the region). Unfortunately, the region finds itself in a weak fiscal situation with 28 out of 32 countries with an overall fiscal deficit, which implies that a gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation will be needed in the years ahead. The report's main focus (Chapter 2) is on the monetary policy dilemma faced by countries in LAC. When a typical commodity-exporter country in LAC is hit by, say, a negative terms of trade shock, real GDP falls, the currency depreciates, and inflation increases. The Central Bank faces the dilemma of (i) increasing policy rates to defend the currency/fight inflation, but at the cost of aggravating the recession or (ii) reducing the policy rate, thus stimulating output, but encouraging further depreciation and inflation. Traditionally, LAC countries have chosen the first option and have thus pursued procyclical monetary policy (i.e., increasing policy rates in bad times). Recently, however, many countries have been able to switch and become countercyclical (i.e., reducing policy rates in bad times), which enables them to prop up the economy in recessionary times (which is particularly important when lack of fiscal space precludes countercyclical fiscal policy).

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Morano & Carlos A. Vegh & Diego Friedheim & Diego Rojas, "undated". "Between a Rock and a Hard Place," World Bank Publications - Reports 28443, The World Bank Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:28443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/685df894-3bcf-5296-a09a-d0c867a34cb1/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tito Cordella & Pablo M. Federico & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17584.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
    4. Carlos A Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "The Road to Redemption: Policy Response to Crises in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 526-568, November.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    6. Daniel Lederman & Justin T. Lesniak, 2018. "Open and Nimble," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28544.
    7. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2016. "The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 137-181, April.
    8. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    9. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Augusto de la Torre & Samuel Pienknagura & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, "undated". "Latin America and the Caribbean as Tailwinds Recede : In Search of Higher Growth, LAC Semiannual Report, April 2013," World Bank Publications - Reports 13266, The World Bank Group.
    11. Cordella, Tito & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "What makes a currency procyclical? An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 240-259.
    12. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    13. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Disinflation and Interest-Bearing Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1546-1563, November.
    15. Carlos Vegh & Daniel Lederman & Federico R. Bennett, "undated". "Leaning Against the Wind," World Bank Publications - Reports 26364, The World Bank Group.
    16. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    17. Magud, Nicolas E., 2010. "Currency mismatch, openness and exchange rate regime choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 68-89, March.
    18. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April.
    19. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    20. Guillermo Vuletin & Ling Zhu, 2011. "Replacing a “Disobedient” Central Bank Governor with a “Docile” One: A Novel Measure of Central Bank Independence and Its Effect on Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1185-1215, September.
    21. Chad P. Bown & Daniel Lederman & Samuel Pienknagura & Raymond Robertson, 2017. "Better Neighbors," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25736.
    22. Ms. Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/071, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, Ayhan M. & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2022. "From Low to High Inflation: Implications for Emerging Market and Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 112596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ocampo, José Antonio & Ojeda-Joya, Jair, 2022. "Supply shocks and monetary policy responses in emerging economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(4).
    2. Tito Cordella & Pablo M. Federico & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17584.
    3. Carlos A Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "The Road to Redemption: Policy Response to Crises in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 526-568, November.
    4. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Eiji Fujii, 2024. "Currency concentration in sovereign debt, exchange rate cyclicality, and volatility in consumption," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 169-192, February.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    8. Roevekamp, Ingmar, 2021. "The impact of US monetary policy on managed exchange rates and currency peg regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
    10. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: Una evaluación de la literatura," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 101-119.
    11. Jean Pierre Allegret, 2012. "Responses of Monetary Authorities in Emerging Economies to International Financial Crises: What Do We Really know?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-32.
    12. Georgios Georgiadis & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_009, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    13. Katharina Bergant & Francesco Grigoli & Niels‐Jakob Hansen & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1405-1438, September.
    14. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "The unique dollarization case of Lebanon," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    15. Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2022. "Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Carlos Vegh & Daniel Lederman & Federico R. Bennett, "undated". "Leaning Against the Wind," World Bank Publications - Reports 26364, The World Bank Group.
    17. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    18. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    19. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2022. "External constraint and procyclicality of monetary policy of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC)," MPRA Paper 116375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 551-572.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:28443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tal Ayalon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.