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Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2017

Author

Listed:
  • Shantayanan Devarajan
  • Lili Mottaghi

Abstract

Plagued by war, violence and low oil prices, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained subdued between 2013 and 2015, but the situation is expected to improve and growth to surge above 3 percent over the forecast period. Though still below potential, the improvement in growth offers hope. We see signs of "green shoots" in some countries in the region, therefore we have upgraded our short-term prospects for MENA from "cautiously pessimistic" to "cautiously optimistic" over the forecast period. The prospects of peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya are one of the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. But realizing that potential depends crucially on how the post-conflict reconstruction is conducted. On the one hand, a well-managed process could help these war-tom countries rebuild their shattered economies and re-integrate their people so that the region as a whole, and possibly the rest of the world, benefits. On the other hand, a badly managed process can risk a recurrence of conflict, continued stagnation and suffering, and perpetual fragility. The economics of postconflict reconstruction, therefore, is critical to the future of MENA's economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, "undated". "Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2017," World Bank Publications - Reports 26305, The World Bank Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:26305
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, "undated". "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 24684, The World Bank Group.
    2. Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, "undated". "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 23705, The World Bank Group.
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamal Kasmaoui, 2020. "What makes Moroccans happy: A micro-data study," Working Papers hal-02956855, HAL.
    2. Robert Kubinec, 2018. "Patrons or Clients? Measuring and Experimentally Evaluating Political Connections of Firms in Morocco and Jordan," Working Papers 1280, Economic Research Forum, revised 26 Dec 2018.
    3. Mahmoud Arayssi & Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun, 2019. "Did the Arab Spring reduce MENA countries’ growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(19), pages 1579-1585, November.
    4. Devadas,Sharmila & Elbadawi,Ibrahim Ahmed & Loayza,Norman V., 2019. "Growth after War in Syria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8967, The World Bank.
    5. Raquel Tebaldi, 2019. "Building Shock-Responsive National Social Protection Systems in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region," Research Report 30, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    6. Siham Matallah, 2020. "Public service delivery, corruption and inequality: key factors driving migration from North Africa to the developed world," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 328-354, December.
    7. Qusai Mohammad Qasim Alabed & Fathin Faizah Said & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Mohammed Daher Alshammary, 2021. "Energy–Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

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